Early Changes in Blood Urea Nitrogen (BUN) Can Predict Mortality in Acute Pancreatitis: Comparative Study between BISAP Score, APACHE-II, and Other Laboratory Markers—A Prospective Observational Study
Table 2
Outcomes of AP according BISAP, APACHE-II, BUN, and haematocrit.
Rise in haematocrit at 24 hours, variation >0.6%
Rise in BUN at 24 hours, variation >1.87 mg/dl
Positive, n = 36
Negative, n = 374
OR
Positive, n = 65
Negative, n = 345
OR
Mortality, n (%)
8 (22.2%)
15 (4%)
0.000
6.8 (2.6–17.5)
18 (27.7%)
5 (1.4%)
0.000
26.0 (9.2–73.4)
Persistent multiorgan failure, n (%)
11 (30.6%)
20 (5.3%)
0.000
7.7 (3.3–18.0)
22 (33.8%)
9 (2.6%)
0.000
19.1 (8.2–44.1)
Severe AP, n (%)
11 (30.6%)
34 (9.1%)
0.001
4.4 (1.9–9.7)
25 (38.5%)
20 (5.8%)
0.000
10.1 (5.1–19.9)
APACHE-II > 8
BISAP > 2
Positive, n = 120
Negative, n = 290
OR
Positive, n = 184
Negative, n = 226
OR
Mortality, n (%)
16 (13.3%)
7 (2.4%)
0.000
6.2 (2.4–15.5)
22 (12%)
1 (0.4%)
0.000
30.5 (4.0–228.9)
Persistent multiorgan failure, n (%)
21 (17.5%)
10 (3.4%)
0.000
5.9 (2.7–13.0)
30 (16.3%)
1 (0.4%)
0.000
43.8 (5.9–324.6)
Severe AP, n (%)
29 (24.2%)
16 (5.5%)
0.000
5.4 (2.8–10.5)
44 (23.9%)
1 (0.4%)
0.000
70 (9.6–519.0)
Haematocrit at admission > 45%
BUN at admission >23.3 mg/dl
Positive, n = 125
Negative, n = 285
OR
Positive, n = 124
Negative, n = 286
OR
Mortality, n (%)
14 (11.2%)
9 (3.2%)
0.001
3.8 (1.6–9.1)
15 (12.1%)
8 (2.8%)
0.000
4.7 (1.9–11.6)
Persistent multiorgan failure, n (%)
20 (16%)
11 (3.9%)
0.000
4.7 (2.1–10.2)
20 (16.1%)
11 (3.8%)
0.000
4.8 (2.2–10.3)
Severe AP, n (%)
24 (19.2%)
21 (7.4%)
0.000
2.9 (1.5–5.6)
33 (26.6%)
12 (4.2%)
0.000
8.2 (4.1–16.7)
BISAP, Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis; APACHE-II, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation-II; BUN, blood urea nitrogen; AP, acute pancreatitis.
