Early Changes in Blood Urea Nitrogen (BUN) Can Predict Mortality in Acute Pancreatitis: Comparative Study between BISAP Score, APACHE-II, and Other Laboratory Markers—A Prospective Observational Study
Table 3
Sensitivity, specificity, and AUC values of BISAP, APACHE-II, BUN, and haematocrit regarding mortality, persisting multiorgan failure, and severe AP.
Sensitivity (CI 95%)
Specificity (CI 95%)
AUC (CI 95%)
Mortality
Rise in haematocrit at 24 h
47.83% (26.8%–69.4%)
85.53% (81.6%–88.9%)
0.674 (0.626–0.719)
0.0135
Rise in BUN at 24 h
78.26% (56.3%–2.5%)
87.60% (83.9%–90.7%)
0.842 (0803–0.875)
0.0001
APACHE-II
69.57% (47.1%–86.8%)
73.13% (68.4%–77.5%)
0.756 (0.711–0.797)
<0.0001
Haematocrit at admission
60.87% (38.5%–80.3%)
71.32% (66.5%–75.8%)
0593 (0.544–0.641)
0.223
BUN at admission
65.22% (42.7%–883.6%)
71.83% (67.1%–76.3%)
0698 (0.651–0.742)
<0.0001
BISAP
95.65% (78.1–99.9)
58.14 (53.0–63.1)
0.836 (0.796–0.870)
<0.0001
Multiorgan persistent failure
Rise in haematocrit at 24 h
48.39% (30.2%–66.9%)
86.28% (82.4%–89.6%)
0.678 (0.630–0.723)
0.0038
Rise in BUN at 24 h
70.97% (52%–85.8%)
88.65% (85.0%–91.7%)
0.828 (0.787–0.863)
<0.0001
APACHE-II
67.74% (48.6%–83.3%)
73.88% (69.1%–78.2%)
0.741 (0.695–0.782)
<0.0001
Admission haematocrit
67.74% (48.6%–83.3%)
69.66% 64.8%–74.2%)
0683 (0.635–0.728)
0.0019
BUN at admission
70.97% (52.0%–85.8%)
68.34% (63.4%–73.0%)
0.721 (0.675–0.764)
<0.0001
BISAP
96.77 (83.3–99.9)
59.37 (54.2–64.4)
0.850 (0.811–0.883)
<0.0001
Atlanta severe AP
Rise in haematocrit at 24 h
33.33% (20.0%49.0%)
85.75% (81.7%–89.2%)
0.587 (0.538–0.635)
0.0779
Rise in BUN at 24 h
55.56% (40.0%–70.4%)
89.04% (89.04%–92.1%)
0.756 (0.711–0.797)
<0.0001
APACHE-II
82.22% (67.9%–92.0%)
63.29% (58.1%–68.2%)
0.761 (0.717–0801)
<0.0001
Haematocrit at admission
57.78% (42.2%–72.3%)
69.86% (64.9%–74.5%)
0.633 (0.584–0.680)
0.0073
BUN at admission
75.56% (60.5%–87.1%)
73.79% (68.9%–78.1%)
0.787 (0.744–0.825)
<0.0001
BISAP
97.78% (88.2%–99.9%)
61.64% (56.4%–66.7%)
0.873 (0.837–0.904)
<0.0001
BISAP, Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis; APACHE-II, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation-II; BUN, blood urea nitrogen; CRP, C-reactive protein, AUC, area-under-the-curve; CI, confidence interval.
