Combined Liver Stiffness and Α-fetoprotein Further beyond the Sustained Virologic Response Visit as Predictors of Long-Term Liver-Related Events in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis C

Table 5

Receiver operating characteristic analysis for the prediction of LREs after SVR and Y3PSVR.

Variables	n/n	AUC	95% CI	value	Cutoff	Se	Sp	PPV	NPV	+LR	−LR
Predicting post-SVR LREs
Age (TW0)	28/520	0.652	0.547–0.757	0.007	65	46.4	80.9	12.2	96.4	2.43	0.66
LS (SVR)	23/367	0.775	0.678–0.871	<0.001	1.50	73.9	27.0	16.3	97.5	2.73	0.36
AFP (SVR)	28/508	0.724	0.633–0.815	<0.001	3.38	78.6	59.8	10.2	98.0	1.96	0.36
Predicting post-Y3PSVR LREs
Age (TW0)	15/520	0.563	0.428–0.697	0.407	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
LS (SVR)	10/367	0.774	0.629–0.919	0.003	1.98	70.0	85.7	12.1	90.0	4.90	0.35
LS (Y3PSVR)	14/374	0.824	0.704–0.945	<0.001	1.45	73.3	82.7	14.1	98.8	4.24	0.32
AFP (Y3PSVR)	13/361	0.664	0.499–0.828	0.038	3.00	64.3	75.5	8.9	98.3	2.62	0.47

Age, years; LS, m/s; AFP, ng/mL. n/n indicates the number of events and the sample size. Comparison of AUCs for LS (SVR) and LS (Y3PSVR) in predicting post-Y3PSVR LREs: . AFP, α-fetoprotein; AUC, area under the curve; CI, confidence interval; −LR, negative likelihood ratio; +LR, positive likelihood ratio; LRE, liver-related events; LS, liver stiffness; NA, not available; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value; Se, sensitivity; Sp, specificity; SVR, sustained virologic response (visit); TW0, treatment baseline; Y3PSVR, year 3 post-SVR.