Table 1: Parameter estimation of 8 candidate models.

BSEt

ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,0)12
 AR10.590.096.920.00
 MA10.990.175.910.00
ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,1)12
 AR10.550.115.160.00
 MA10.930.0615.590.00
 SMA10.710.125.990.00
ARIMA(1,1,1)(1,1,0)12
 AR10.540.114.860.00
 MA10.920.0615.710.00
 SAR1−0.450.09−5.140.00
ARIMA(1,1,1)(1,1,1)12
 AR10.550.115.210.00
 MA10.930.0615.660.00
 SAR10.090.180.480.63
 SMA10.780.223.630.00
ARIMA(2,1,1)(0,1,0)12
 AR10.610.106.110.00
 AR2−0.020.10−0.150.88
 MA10.990.156.860.00
ARIMA(2,1,1)(0,1,1)12
 AR10.550.115.000.00
 AR20.000.11−0.010.99
 MA10.930.0714.130.00
 SMA10.710.125.950.00
ARIMA(2,1,1)(1,1,0)12
 AR10.540.114.760.00
 AR20.020.110.220.83
 MA10.930.0614.900.00
 SAR1−0.450.09−5.140.00
ARIMA(2,1,1)(1,1,1)12
 AR10.550.115.030.00
 AR2−0.010.11−0.080.94
 MA10.930.0713.980.00
 SAR10.090.180.490.63
 SMA10.780.223.610.00

Note. The parameter estimation of the ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,0)12, ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,1)12, and ARIMA(1,1,1)(1,1,0)12 models showed , but for other models, .