Table 2: Correlation analysis of 3 candidate models.

Nonseasonal modelSeasonal model
AR1MA1SAR1SMA1

ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,0)12
 AR110.34
 MA10.341
ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,1)12
 AR110.640.04
 MA10.641−0.10
 SMA10.04−0.101
ARIMA(1,1,1)(1,1,0)12
 AR110.660.09
 MA10.6610.15
 SAR10.090.151

Note. The parameters of three candidate models are all less than 1, so there is hardly any correlation.