Spatiotemporal Study of COVID-19 in Fars Province, Iran, October-November 2020: Establishment of Early Warning System

Table 6

The spatiotemporal outbreaks of the 55 369 COVID-19 cases in Fars province, Iran during 1 October–14 November 2020.

Cluster	Location	Radius (km)	Canon	Start date	End date	Test statistic	Critical value^†
Cluster 1 (MLC)	Ghirkarzin, Jahrom, Firoozabad, Khonj, Fasa, Farashband, Sarvestan, Lamerd, Kharame, Stahban	135.53	Jahrom	2020/10/02	2020/10/22	223.31	8.70	<0.001
Cluster 2	Sepidan	0	Sepidan	2020/11/03	2020/11/13	185.98	8.70	<0.001
Cluster 3	Fasa	0	Fasa	2020/11/03	2020/11/13	117.80	8.70	<0.001
Cluster 4	Lar, Zarindasht	76.03	Lar	2020/10/21	2020/10/21	32.28	8.70	<0.001
Sub-cluster results
Cluster 4	Zarrindasht	0	Zarrindasht	2020/10/06	2020/10/09	3.23	3.08	0.04
Cluster 1 (MLC)	Fasa	0	Fasa	2020/10/06	2020/10/09	6.30	6.90	0.09
	Ghirkarzin	0	Ghirkarzin	2020/11/08	2020/11/09	3.44	6.90	0.90

Statistical significance was evaluated using Monte Carlo hypothesis testing at 0.05 significance level. ^†Standard Monte Carlo critical value. MLC, most likely cluster.