Spatiotemporal Study of COVID-19 in Fars Province, Iran, October-November 2020: Establishment of Early Warning System
Table 7
The space-time outbreaks of the 59 980 COVID-19 incidence cases accompanied by subcluster analysis in Fars province, Iran, during 1 October–14 November 2020.
Cluster
Location
Radius (km)
Canon
Start date
End date
Test statistic
Critical value†
value
Cluster1
Zarindasht, Darab, Lar
76.03
Zarindasht
2020/11/8
2020/11/14
189.3
5.6
<0.001
Cluster2
Fasa
0
Fasa
2020/11/4
2020/11/14
138.18
5.6
<0.001
Cluster3
Sepidan
0
Sepidan
2020/11/13
2020/11/14
55.54
5.6
<0.001
Cluster4
Firoozabad, Farashband, Ghirkarzin, Sarvestan
79.70
Firoozabad
2020/11/8
2020/11/14
36.89
5.6
<0.001
Cluster5
Bavanat
0
Bavanat
2020/11/11
2020/11/14
21.47
5.6
<0.001
Cluster6
Rostam
0
Rostam
2020/11/1
2020/11/14
17.86
5.6
<0.001
Cluster7
Jahrom
0
Jahrom
2020/10/27
2020/11/14
6.72
5.6
0.02
Sub-cluster results
Cluster1
Darab, Zarindasht
46.57
Darab
2020/11/14
2020/11/14
6.08
2.4
<0.001
Zarrindasht
0
Zarindasht
2020/11/5
2020/11/14
2.1
1.53
0.01
Cluster4
Ghirkarzin
0
Ghirkarzin
2020/11/7
2020/11/14
18.23
2.71
<0.001
Sarvestan
0
Sarvestan
2020/10/31
2020/11/14
14.58
2.71
<0.001
Farashband
0
Farashband
2020/11/8
2020/11/14
14.25
2.71
<0.001
Firoozabad
0
Firoozabad
2020/11/14
2020/11/14
7.61
2.71
<0.001
Statistical significance was evaluated using Monte Carlo hypothesis testing at 0.05 significance level. †Standard Monte Carlo critical value. MLC, most likely cluster.
