Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine

Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine / 2009 / Article

Original Article | Open Access

Volume 10 |Article ID 252768 | 10 pages |

How to Obtain Long Term Projections for Smoking Behaviour: A Case Study in the Dutch Population


A state-transition model is presented to project the prevalence rates of never, current and former smokers within the Dutch population. Changes are determined by the transition rates among these three classes: start rates, quit rates and relapse rates. Both the initial prevalence rates and transition rates are calculated from cross-sectional data using a restricted quadratic multinomial regression spline and a restricted quadratic logistic regression spline, respectively. Through a Monte Carlo experiment an uncertainty analysis was performed to assess the level of reliability of the results, while a sensitivity analysis was carried out in order to detect the input variables that mostly contribute to the output variability. The results obtained through this model show a considerable but rather slow decrease of smokers up to year 2050.

Copyright © 2009 Hindawi Publishing Corporation. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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