Long-Term Prediction of Emergency Department Revenue and Visitor Volume Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model

Table 5

Prediction results of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models in 2009.

Date	ED revenue		Traumatic visit		Nontraumatic visit		Pediatric visit
	True Value	Forecasted value	True value	Forecasted value	True value	Forecasted value	True value	Forecasted value
Jan-09	4,767,559	3,676,314	584	472	1,415	826	1,204	551
Feb-09	3,885,639	4,547,216	465	498	1,162	1,177	630	699
Mar-09	3,419,070	3,529,467	597	535	1,090	857	595	719
Apr-09	3,897,391	3,313,426	582	507	945	910	546	740
May-09	3,804,037	2,158,604	572	502	962	862	613	712
Jun-09	3,336,949	5,126,700	570	539	852	946	491	657
Jul-09	3,642,391	5,576,091	599	575	903	845	476	560
Aug-09	4,703,707	5,731,772	692	590	1,179	917	802	548
Sep-09	5,058,538	5,787,666	675	625	1,366	1,047	1,324	787
MAPE	22.61%; (14.38%~29.73%)		12.39%; (10.16%~19.12%)		19.59%; (13.71%~41.61%)		29.08%; (5.73%~54.24%)

MAPE: mean absolute percentage of error.