Research Article
Comparing Statistical Models to Predict Dengue Fever Notifications
Table 3
Comparison of out-of-sample predictions (external validation) between ARIMA and K-H models.
| MAPE | ARIMA | K-H |
| Overall | 17.54 | 17.21 |
| Stratified (in 4 week intervals) | | | Year 2007 | | | Weeks 1 to 4 | 17.07 | 14.27 | 5 to 8 | 28.60 | 25.62 | 9 to 12 | 33.41 | 30.63 | 13 to 16 | 32.52 | 33.09 | 17 to 20 | 21.83 | 20.53 | 21 to 24 | 20.64 | 19.76 | 25 to 28 | 12.86 | 13.22 | 29 to 32 | 11.53 | 14.40 | 33 to 36 | 8.54 | 10.26 | 37 to 40 | 5.07 | 6.50 | 41 to 44 | 18.49 | 17.42 | 45 to 48 | 8.54 | 10.35 | 49 to 52 | 15.70 | 12.44 | Year 2008 | | | Weeks 1 to 4 | 11.13 | 11.16 | 5 to 8 | 29.09 | 25.63 | 9 to 12 | 16.39 | 19.41 | 13 to 16 | 15.51 | 10.77 | 17 to 20 | 19.21 | 18.38 | 21 to 24 | 9.83 | 10.07 |
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