Comparing Statistical Models to Predict Dengue Fever Notifications

Table 4

Sensitivity analysis on K-H model parameters.

MAPE	Initial K-H model	Sensitivity analysis
		1	2	3	4
Overall	17.21	17.71	17.71	17.50	16.54
Stratified (in 4 week intervals)
Year 2007
Weeks 1 to 4	14.27	20.12	22.33	20.30	20.03
5 to 8	25.62	25.41	25.66	25.12	23.39
9 to 12	30.63	31.06	31.30	30.95	31.07
13 to 16	33.09	33.20	32.31	32.49	27.89
17 to 20	20.53	20.41	20.40	20.92	21.82
21 to 24	19.76	21.14	20.90	21.25	21.58
25 to 28	13.22	13.45	14.18	13.28	12.91
29 to 32	14.40	13.98	13.04	13.39	10.65
33 to 36	10.26	10.76	9.97	10.55	6.11
37 to 40	6.50	6.69	6.39	5.54	3.30
41 to 44	17.42	17.62	17.54	16.91	15.94
45 to 48	10.35	11.30	10.59	11.09	10.67
49 to 52	12.44	12.99	12.37	12.58	13.12
Year 2008
Weeks 1 to 4	11.16	11.09	10.85	11.13	11.31
5 to 8	25.63	25.53	26.01	25.49	25.83
9 to 12	19.41	20.03	20.25	19.31	16.28
13 to 16	10.77	10.72	10.47	10.72	11.25
17 to 20	18.38	19.20	17.97	18.59	19.27
21 to 24	10.07	9.33	10.98	9.95	9.92

A description of the parameters used in the sensitivity analysis is provided in the 4th page of the manuscript.