The Time Required to Estimate the Case Fatality Ratio of Influenza Using Only the Tip of an Iceberg: Joint Estimation of the Virulence and the Transmission Potential

Table 1

Coverage probability of the case fatality ratio (CFR) for each set of parameter values.

CFR: case fatality ratio (assigned value). All the values were calculated as the proportion of successful simulation runs with the 95% confidence intervals that include the assigned CFR value among the total of 1000 simulation runs. The parameter 𝑟 is the exponential growth rate of infection (per day). 𝑇 is the epidemic date on which the estimation is performed. Those exceeding the coverage probability of 90% are highlighted in dark grey, while the cells with *mark and shaded in light grey represent combinations of parameter values which generate too large numbers of cases and for which we refrained from estimation.