Table of Contents Author Guidelines Submit a Manuscript
Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine
Volume 2014, Article ID 295028, 10 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/295028
Research Article

Long-Distance Travel Behaviours Accelerate and Aggravate the Large-Scale Spatial Spreading of Infectious Diseases

Center for Biosecurity Strategy Management, Beijing Institute of Biotechnology, Beijing 100071, China

Received 21 October 2013; Revised 8 December 2013; Accepted 16 December 2013; Published 8 January 2014

Academic Editor: Ricardo Femat

Copyright © 2014 Zhijing Xu et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Linked References

  1. World Health Organization et al., “Avian influenza: assessing the pandemic threat,” 2005.
  2. S. L. Knobler, A. Mack, A. Mahmoud, and S. M. Lemon, The Threat of Pandemic in Uenza: Are We Ready? Workshop Summary, National Academies Press, 2005.
  3. N. C. Grassly and C. Fraser, “Mathematical models of infectious disease transmission,” Nature Reviews Microbiology, vol. 6, no. 6, pp. 477–487, 2008. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  4. M. Marathe and A. K. S. Vullikanti, “Computational epidemiology,” Communications of the ACM, vol. 56, no. 7, pp. 88–96, 2013. View at Google Scholar
  5. G. P. Garnett and R. M. Anderson, “Sexually transmitted diseases and sexual behavior: insights from mathematical models,” Journal of Infectious Diseases, vol. 174, no. 2, pp. S150–S161, 1996. View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  6. J. J. Potterat, R. B. Rothenberg, and S. Q. Muth, “Network structural dynamics and infectious disease propagation,” International Journal of STD and AIDS, vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 182–185, 1999. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  7. L. M. Sander, C. P. Warren, I. M. Sokolov, C. Simon, and J. Koopman, “Percolation on heterogeneous networks as a model for epidemics,” Mathematical Biosciences, vol. 180, pp. 293–305, 2002. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  8. B. Szendroi and G. Csányi, “Polynomial epidemics and clustering in contact networks,” Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B, vol. 271, supplement 5, pp. S364–S366, 2004. View at Google Scholar
  9. M. J. Keeling and K. T. D. Eames, “Networks and epidemic models,” Journal of the Royal Society Interface, vol. 2, no. 4, pp. 295–307, 2005. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  10. M. E. J. Newman, D. J. Watts, and S. H. Strogatz, “Random graph models of social networks,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol. 99, no. 1, pp. 2566–2572, 2002. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  11. C. J. Rhodes and R. M. Anderson, “Epidemic thresholds and vaccination in a lattice model of disease spread,” Theoretical Population Biology, vol. 52, no. 2, pp. 101–118, 1997. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  12. D. JWatts, Small Worlds: The Dynamics of Networks between Order and Randomness, Princeton University Press, 1999.
  13. J. M. Read and M. J. Keeling, “Disease evolution on networks: the role of contact structure,” Proceedings of the Royal Society B, vol. 270, no. 1516, pp. 699–708, 2003. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  14. A.-L. Barabási and R. Albert, “Emergence of scaling in random networks,” Science, vol. 286, no. 5439, pp. 509–512, 1999. View at Google Scholar
  15. N. M. Ferguson, D. A. T. Cummings, S. Cauchemez et al., “Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia,” Nature, vol. 437, no. 7056, pp. 209–214, 2005. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  16. N. M. Ferguson, D. A. T. Cummings, C. Fraser, J. C. Cajka, P. C. Cooley, and D. S. Burke, “Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic,” Nature, vol. 442, no. 7101, pp. 448–452, 2006. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  17. V. Colizza, A. Barrat, M. Barthélemy, and A. Vespignani, “The role of the airline transportation network in the prediction and predictability of global epidemics,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol. 103, no. 7, pp. 2015–2020, 2006. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  18. V. Colizza, A. Barrat, M. Barthelemy, A.-J. Valleron, and A. Vespignani, “Modeling the worldwide spread of pandemic influenza: baseline case and containment interventions,” PLoS Medicine, vol. 4, no. 1, article e13, 2007. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  19. V. Colizza, A. Barrat, M. Barthélemy, and A. Vespignani, “Predictability and epidemic pathways in global outbreaks of infectious diseases: the SARS case study,” BMC Medicine, vol. 5, article 34, 2007. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  20. D. Balcan, V. Colizza, B. Gonçalves, H. Hud, J. J. Ramasco, and A. Vespignani, “Multiscale mobility networks and the spatial spreading of infectious diseases,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol. 106, no. 51, pp. 21484–21489, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  21. S. Merler and M. Ajelli, “The role of population heterogeneity and human mobility in the spread of pandemic influenza,” Proceedings of the Royal Society B, vol. 277, no. 1681, pp. 557–565, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  22. D. Balcan, B. Gonçalves, H. Hu, J. J. Ramasco, V. Colizza, and A. Vespignani, “Modeling the spatial spread of infectious diseases: the global epidemic and mobility computational model,” Journal of Computational Science, vol. 1, no. 3, pp. 132–145, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  23. S. Jang, L. Yu, and T. E. Pearson, “Chinese travellers to the United States: a comparison of business travel and visiting friends and relatives,” Tourism Geographies, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 87–108, 2003. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  24. S. Riley, “Large-scale spatial-transmission models of infectious disease,” Science, vol. 316, no. 5829, pp. 1298–1301, 2007. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  25. R. L. Axtell, “Zipf distribution of U.S. firm sizes,” Science, vol. 293, no. 5536, pp. 1818–1820, 2001. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  26. S. Eubank, H. Guclu, V. S. A. Kumar et al., “Modelling disease outbreaks in realistic urban social networks,” Nature, vol. 429, no. 6988, pp. 180–184, 2004. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  27. K.-I. Goh, B. Kahng, and D. Kim, “Universal behavior of load distribution in scale-free networks,” Physical Review Letters, vol. 87, no. 27, Article ID 278701, 2001. View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  28. F. Chung and L. Lu, “Connected components in random graphs with given expected degree sequences,” Annals of Combinatorics, vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 125–145, 2002. View at Google Scholar
  29. M. J. Keeling and P. Rohani, Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals, Princeton University Press, 2011.
  30. R. M. Anderson and R. M. May B Anderson, Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control, vol. 28, John Wiley & Sons, 1992.
  31. J. M. Heffernan, R. J. Smith, and L. M. Wahl, “Perspectives on the basic reproductive ratio,” Journal of the Royal Society Interface, vol. 2, no. 4, pp. 281–293, 2005. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  32. M. Lipsitch, T. Cohen, B. Cooper et al., “Transmission dynamics and control of severe acute respiratory syndrome,” Science, vol. 300, no. 5627, pp. 1966–1970, 2003. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  33. O. Diekmann, J. A. Heesterbeek, and J. A. Metz, “On the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio R0 in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations,” Journal of Mathematical Biology, vol. 28, no. 4, pp. 365–382, 1990. View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  34. G. Chowell, S. Echevarría-Zuno, C. Viboud et al., “Characterizing the epidemiology of the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in Mexico,” PLoS Medicine, vol. 8, no. 5, Article ID e1000436, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  35. M. C. González, C. A. Hidalgo, and A.-L. Barabási, “Understanding individual human mobility patterns,” Nature, vol. 453, no. 7196, pp. 779–782, 2008. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus