Model Selection and Evaluation Based on Emerging Infectious Disease Data Sets including A/H1N1 and Ebola
Table 3
The corresponding Bayes factor and AIC about four models based on A/H1N1 and Ebola data.
Data source
Logistic
Gompertz
Rosenzweig
Richards
H1N1
Logistic
1
Inf
Inf
1.34
Gompertz
0
1
/
—
Rosenzweig
0
/
1
—
Richards model
0.75
Inf
Inf
1
AIC
249
362
592
254
West Africa
Logistic
1
Inf
Inf
2.1528
Gompertz
0
1
/
—
Rosenzweig
0
/
1
—
Richards model
0.4645
Inf
Inf
1
AIC
5200
49500
1872800
5400
Guinea
Logistic
1
Inf
Inf
1.25
Gompertz
0
1
/
—
Rosenzweig
0
/
1
—
Richards model
0.8
Inf
Inf
1
AIC
1991
3427
18476
1998
Liberia
Logistic
1
Inf
Inf
—
Gompertz
0
1
/
—
Rosenzweig
0
/
1
—
Richards model
Inf
Inf
1
AIC
6308
6547
7980
2559
Sierra Leona
Logistic
1
—
—
—
Gompertz
102310
1
2.96
0.28
Rosenzweig
34750
0.34
1
0.095
Richards model
362940
3.55
10.48
1
AIC
15432
6251
7038
5400
— means a very small number. Inf means a sufficiently big number. 0 means the probability of being chosen for model is zero. / means a no number (i.e., 0/0).
