Prediction Accuracy in Multivariate Repeated-Measures Bayesian Forecasting Models with Examples Drawn from Research on Sleep and Circadian Rhythms

Figure 1

Lapses of attention on a psychomotor vigilance test (PVT) for a subject in a study involving 88 h of total sleep deprivation under controlled laboratory conditions. In each of the six plots, different amounts of subject data are assumed known (black dots), and the Bayesian forecasting procedure is applied to the known data to construct predictions of PVT number of lapses for a 24 h interval immediately following the most recent collected data point at time . For the 24 h interval, 95% prediction intervals (vertical bars) are shown, along with the remainder of the data for comparison (gray dots). The beginning of the 88 h sleep deprivation period, , was at 07:30. Graphs taken from [7] with permission.