Prediction Accuracy in Multivariate Repeated-Measures Bayesian Forecasting Models with Examples Drawn from Research on Sleep and Circadian Rhythms

Figure 10

MMSE predictions of the expected primary response and corresponding 95% confidence intervals for a randomly simulated individual from the model specified in (85). The MMSE estimator is determined assuming each of the following: no data was observed (black line and gray confidence interval), a single primary response was observed (blue line and confidence interval), and both a primary and a secondary response were observed (purple line and confidence interval). The expected primary and secondary responses using the subject’s simulated parameter values are shown with blue and red dashed lines. The black vertical dashed line shows the time at which predictions are made.