A Mathematical Model with Quarantine States for the Dynamics of Ebola Virus Disease in Human Populations

Table 1

A possible progression path of symptoms from  exposure to the Ebola Virus to treatment or death. Table shows a suggested transition and time frame in humans, of the virus, from exposure to incubation to symptoms development and recovery or death. This table is adapted based on the image in the Huffington post, via [11]. Superscript a: for the 2014 epidemic, the average incubation period is reported to be between 9 and 11 days [10]. Superscript b: other studies reported a mean of 4–10 days [8, 9].

Exposure	Incubation period	Course of illness			Recovery or death
	Range: 2 to 21 days from exposure	⁢Range: 6 to 16 days from the end of the incubation period			Recovery: by the end of days 6–11	Death: by the end of days 6–16
		Probable	Early symptomatic	Late symptomatic
		Days 1–3	Days 4–7	Days 7–10
An individual comes in contact with an Ebola infected individual (dead or alive) or have been in the vicinity of someone who has been exposed.	Average of 8–11 days before symptoms are evident. Another estimate reports an average of 4–10 days.	Patients exhibit malaria-like or flu-like symptoms: for example, fever and weakness.	Patients progress to gastrointestinal symptoms: for example, nausea, watery diarrhea, vomiting, and abdominal pain. Other symptoms may include low blood pressure, anemia, headaches, chest pain, shortness of breath, exhibition of a rash, confusion, bleeding, and conjunctivitis.	Patients may present with confusion and may exhibit signs of internal and/or visible bleeding, potentially progressing towards coma, shock, and death.	Some patients may recover, while others will die.; Recovery typically requires early intervention.