Table of Contents Author Guidelines Submit a Manuscript
Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine
Volume 2017, Article ID 4074197, 13 pages
https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/4074197
Research Article

A Systems Dynamic Model for Drug Abuse and Drug-Related Crime in the Western Cape Province of South Africa

Department of Mathematical Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Private Bag X1, Matieland 7600, South Africa

Correspondence should be addressed to Farai Nyabadza; moc.liamg@abayn.f

Received 12 October 2016; Accepted 26 February 2017; Published 7 May 2017

Academic Editor: Sanjeewa Perera

Copyright © 2017 Farai Nyabadza and Lezanie Coetzee. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Linked References

  1. A. Plüddemann, B. J. Myers, and C. D. H. Parry, “Surge in treatment admissions related to methamphetamine use in Cape Town, South Africa: implications for public health,” Drug and Alcohol Review, vol. 27, no. 2, pp. 185–189, 2008. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  2. Department of Community Safety, “Report on the Western Cape policing needs and priorities,” 2013/2014 PNP Report, https://www.westerncape.gov.za/sites/www.westerncape.gov.za/files/w_cape_provincial_pnp_report_2013_14.pdf.
  3. Crime Stats SA, “Crime Stats Simplified,” http://www.crimestatssa.com/index.php.
  4. South African Police Service (SAPS), “South African Police Service/Western Cape,” Annual Report, vol. 2012/13, 2012. View at Google Scholar
  5. A. S. Kalula and F. Nyabadza, “A theoretical model for substance abuse in the presence of treatment,” South African Journal of Science, vol. 108, no. 3-4, pp. 1–12, 2012. View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  6. H. J. B. Njagarah and F. Nyabadza, “Modeling the impact of rehabilitation, amelioration and relapse on the prevalence of drug epidemics,” Journal of Biological Systems, vol. 21, no. 1, Article ID 1350001, 2013. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Zentralblatt MATH · View at Scopus
  7. J. B. H. Njagarah and F. Nyabadza, “Modelling the role of drug barons on the prevalence of drug epidemics,” Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 843–860, 2013. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Zentralblatt MATH · View at Scopus
  8. F. Nyabadza, J. B. H. Njagarah, and R. J. Smith, “Modelling the dynamics of crystal meth (‘tik’) abuse in the presence of drug-supply chains in South Africa,” Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, vol. 75, no. 1, pp. 24–48, 2013. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  9. F. Nyabadza and S. D. Hove-Musekwa, “From heroin epidemics to methamphetamine epidemics: modelling substance abuse in a South African province,” Mathematical Biosciences, vol. 225, no. 2, pp. 132–140, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  10. H. R. White and D. M. Gorman, “Dynamics of the drug-crime relationship,” Criminal Justice, vol. 1, no. 15, pp. 1–218, 2000. View at Google Scholar
  11. S. M. Boles and K. Miotto, “Substance abuse and violence: a review of the literature,” Aggression and Violent Behavior, vol. 8, no. 2, pp. 155–174, 2003. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  12. K. Johnson, S. Dada, and N. H. Burnhams et al., “SACENDU Monitoring Alcohol, Tobacco and Drug Abuse Treatment Admissions in South Africa October 2008 Phase 24,” https://www.saps.gov.za/resource_centre/publications/statistics/crimestats/2014/download/final_tables_2014.xlsx.
  13. South African Police Service (SAPS), “Police station figures per province 2004 to 2014,” http://www.saps.gov.za/resource_centre/publications/statistics/crimestats/2014/download/police_station_figures_per_province_wc1.xls.
  14. H. D. Holder, “Substance abuse treatment as part of a total system of community response,” Nordic Studies on Alcohol and Drugs, vol. 27, no. 6, pp. 549–563, 2010. View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  15. S. J. Leischow and B. Milstein, “Systems thinking and modeling for public health practice,” American Journal of Public Health, vol. 96, no. 3, pp. 403–405, 2006. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  16. S. J. Leischow, A. Best, W. M. Trochim et al., “Systems thinking to improve the public's health,” American Journal of Preventive Medicine, vol. 35, no. 2, pp. S196–S203, 2008. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  17. R. C. Swanson, A. Cattaneo, E. Bradley et al., “Rethinking health systems strengthening: key systems thinking tools and strategies for transformational change,” Health Policy and Planning, vol. 27, supplement 4, pp. iv54–iv61, 2012. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  18. R. L. Flood, “The relationship of ‘systems thinking’ to action research,” Systemic Practice and Action Research, vol. 23, no. 4, pp. 269–284, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  19. D. De Savigny and T. Adam, Systems Thinking for Health Systems Strengthening, World Health Organization, Geneva‎, Switzerland, 2009.
  20. W. M. Trochim, D. A. Cabrera, B. Milstein, R. S. Gallagher, and S. J. Leischow, “Practical challenges of systems thinking and modeling in public health,” American Journal of Public Health, vol. 96, no. 3, pp. 538–546, 2006. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  21. S. Dada, N. H. Burnhams, and K. Johnson et al., “Monitoring alcohol, tobacco and drug abuse treatment admissions in South Africa: July-December 2013: Phase 35: SACENDU report back meetings,” http://www.hsrc.ac.za/en/research-outputs/view/7174.
  22. Statistics South Africa (Stas-SA), “Community survey census (2011),” http://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P03014/P030142011.pdf.
  23. S. Dada, N. H. Burnhams, and Y. Williams et al., “Monitoring Alcohol, Tobacco and Drug Abuse Treatment Admissions in South Africa,” http://www.mrc.ac.za/adarg/sacendu/SacenduReportJune2015.pdf.
  24. Statistics South Africa (Stas-SA), “Community Survey Census (2004),” https://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P0302/P03022004.pdf.
  25. Crime Stats, http://www.crimestatssa.com/province.php?ShowProvince=Western+Cape.
  26. Statistics South Africa, “Statistical release P0302 Mid-year population estimates,” 2014, http://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P0302/P03022014.pdf.
  27. Statistics South Africa, “South African Statistics, 2004/05,” http://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/SAStatistics/SAStatistics2004.pdf.
  28. “Health 24,” http://www.health24.com/Lifestyle/Street-drugs/News/Dagga-alcohol-top-SA-drug-choices-20130618.
  29. A. Pluddemann, C. Parry, A. Bhana, S. Dada, and D. Fourie, “South African Community Epidemiology Network on Drug Use (SACENDU): update: alcohol and drug abuse trends: January–June 2009 (Phase 26),” http://www.hsrc.ac.za/en/research-data/view/5190.
  30. S. Dada, N. H. Burnhams, and Y. Williams et al., “Monitoring alcohol and drug abuse trends in South Africa. Proceedings of South African Community Epidiology Network on Drug Use (SACENDU) report back meetings, May 2015; July–December 2014: Phase 37,” http://www.hsrc.ac.za/en/research-data/view/7733.
  31. T. Leggett, “The sieve effect: South Africa's conviction rates in perspective,” SA Crime Quarterly no. 5, September 2003.
  32. South African Law Commission, “Research paper 18: Conviction rates and other outcomes of crimes reported in eight South African police areas,” http://www.justice.gov.za/salrc/rpapers/rp18.pdf.
  33. Department of Correctional Services, “Annual Report 2007,” http://www.dcs.gov.za/Publications/Annual%20Reports/DCS%20Annual%20Report%202007.pdf.