Stochastic Periodic Solution of a Susceptible-Infective Epidemic Model in a Polluted Environment under Environmental Fluctuation

<div>Observed (red double cross pattern) of cases of measles <svg height="11.5564pt" id="M254" style="vertical-align:-2.26807pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 19.1638 11.5564" width="19.1638pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M405 650H141L135 622C222 616 230 610 215 535L133 116C118 41 113 33 29 28L23 0H289L295 28C209 33 205 40 219 116L298 535C312 609 317 616 399 622L405 650Z" id="g113-74"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,5.567,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z" id="g113-41"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,10.065,0)"><path d="M324 430H196L233 583L223 592L145 529L120 430H54L29 396L31 388H111L56 126C33 15 54 -12 77 -12C137 -12 214 57 250 95L233 119C208 92 155 59 138 59C126 59 120 70 131 125L186 390L298 394L324 430Z" id="g113-117"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,14.498,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z" id="g113-42"></path></g></svg> during Jan 2013 to Dec 2016 and model fitted and predicted cases of measles (blue line) from Jan 2013 to Dec 2019. The inner panel is the sample path of <span class="nowrap"><svg height="11.5564pt" id="M255" style="vertical-align:-2.26807pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 19.738 11.5564" width="19.738pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M449 634C442 637 425 643 405 650C376 660 341 666 307 666C181 666 98 590 98 485C98 400 170 343 215 310L246 288C307 243 343 204 343 147C343 67 291 18 219 18C104 18 61 124 51 202L23 199C28 124 27 71 27 47C47 22 122 -16 204 -16C324 -16 428 60 428 174C428 256 379 309 307 360L276 382C223 419 179 455 179 516C179 576 221 632 293 632C379 632 410 564 418 487L448 490C446 536 446 592 449 634Z" id="g113-84"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,6.136,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z" id="g113-41"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,10.634,0)"><path d="M324 430H196L233 583L223 592L145 529L120 430H54L29 396L31 388H111L56 126C33 15 54 -12 77 -12C137 -12 214 57 250 95L233 119C208 92 155 59 138 59C126 59 120 70 131 125L186 390L298 394L324 430Z" id="g113-117"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,15.068,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z" id="g113-42"></path></g></svg>.</span></div>

Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine

fig5

Figure 5

Figure 5: Stochastic Periodic Solution of a Susceptible-Infective Epidemic Model in a Polluted Environment under Environmental Fluctuation 