Evaluating the Cost-Effective Use of Follow-Up Colonoscopy Based on Screening Findings and Age

Table 1

Annual transition probabilities between adenoma and CRC states.

	Yearly transition probability
Adenoma growth transition
No adenoma to diminutive	Varies from 0 to 0.0971 depending on age
Diminutive to no adenoma	0.0181
Diminutive to medium adenoma	0.0163
Medium to diminutive adenoma	0.0716
Medium to large adenoma	0.0377
Medium adenoma to CRC	0.0025
Large to medium adenoma	0.0047
Large adenoma to local CRC	0.0028
CRC growth transition
Local CRC to regional CRC	0.22
Regional CRC to distant CRC	0.50
CRC symptom transition
Asymptomatic local CRC to symptomatic local CRC	0.17
Asymptomatic regional CRC to symptomatic regional CRC	0.22
Asymptomatic distant CRC to symptomatic distant CRC	0.50