Research Article

A Simulation Study Comparing Different Statistical Approaches for the Identification of Predictive Biomarkers

Table 3

Estimated power with exact confidence intervals (in brackets) for Scenarios 5 and 6 for all investigated methods.

n = 250n = 500n = 1000
Low cens.High cens.Low cens.High cens.Low cens.High cens.

Scenario 5Median split16.1%10.4%26.7%17.7%46.6%29.3%
(13.9–18.5%)(8.6–12.5%)(24.0–29.6%)(15.4–20.2%)(43.5–49.7%)(26.5–32.2%)
Quartile split23.0%10.5%41.3%21.2%70.9%40.1%
(20.4–25.7%)(8.7–12.6%)(38.2–44.4%)(18.7–23.9%)(68.0–73.7%)(37.0–43.2%)
Optimal split79.7%60.2%93.8%78.3%99.4%91.9%
(77.1–82.2%)(57.1–63.2%)(92.1–95.2%)(75.6–80.8%)(98.7–99.8%)(90.0–93.5%)
STEPP15.9%7.4%35.0%14.8%68.7%31.0%
(13.7–18.3%)(5.9–9.2%)(32.0–38.0%)(12.7–17.2%)(65.7–71.6%)(28.1–34.0%)
Cox (linear int.)25.6%16.3%47.0%30.6%76.2%51.1%
(22.9–28.4%)(14.1–18.7%)(43.9–50.1%)(27.8–33.6%)(73.4–78.8%)(48.0–54.2%)
MFPI (FP1-flex3)39.7%22.6%67.3%39.7%93.8%66.5%
(36.7–42.8%)(20.0–25.3%)(64.3–70.2%)(36.7–42.8%)(92.1–95.2%)(63.5–69.4%)
MFPI (FP2-flex1)26.8%13.2%50.6%27.1%87.5%51.8%
(24.1–29.7%)(11.2–15.5%)(47.5–53.7%)(24.4–30.0%)(85.3–89.5%)(48.7–54.9%)
LPLB22.5%9.3%46.9%21.9%83.4%45.3%
(19.9–25.2%)(7.6–11.3%)(43.8–50.0%)(19.4–24.6%)(80.9–85.7%)(42.2–48.4%)

Scenario 6Median split5.3%3.9%5.1%5.1%6.4%4.9%
(4.0–6.9%)(2.8–5.3%)(3.8–6.7%)(3.8–6.7%)(5.0–8.1%)(3.6–6.4%)
Quartile split24.3%13.0%42.0%16.0%73.8%36.5%
(21.7–27.1%)(11.0–15.2%)(38.9–45.1%)(13.8–18.4%)(71.0–76.5%)(33.5–39.6%)
Optimal split73.8%56.5%88.1%67.1%97.6%86.3%
(71.0–76.5%)(53.4–59.6%)(85.9–90.0%)(64.1–70.0%)(96.4–98.5%)(84.0–88.4%)
STEPP14.8%7.9%31.4%12.7%61.6%25.9%
(12.7–17.2%)(6.3–9.7%)(28.5–34.4%)(10.7–14.9%)(58.5–64.6%)(23.2–28.7%)
Cox (linear int.)6.1%5.9%4.8%5.1%6.2%4.6%
(4.7–7.8%)(4.5–7.5%)(3.6–6.3%)(3.8–6.7%)(4.8–7.9%)(3.4–6.1%)
MFPI (FP1-flex3)23.0%16.5%30.6%18.5%50.9%27.3%
(20.4–25.7%)(14.3–18.9%)(27.8–33.6%)(16.1–21.0%)(47.8–54.0%)(24.6–30.2%)
MFPI (FP2-flex1)20.0%11.2%28.6%12.8%45.9%26.9%
(17.6–22.6%)(9.3–13.3%)(25.8–31.5%)(10.8–15.0%)(42.8–49.0%)(24.2–29.8%)
LPLB22.2%10.4%41.5%17.9%74.6%36.7%
(19.7–24.9%)(8.6–12.5%)(38.4–44.6%)(15.6–20.4%)(71.8–77.3%)(33.7–39.8%)

Due to increased type I error probabilities, results for Optimal split and MFPI (FP1-flex3) are presented in italics.