Multiple Linear Regression Model of Meningococcal Disease in Ukraine: 1992–2015

Table 1

Indicators used for building linear regression for total population with invasive meningococcal disease in Ukraine from 1992 to 2015.

Year	IMD incidence, total (Y)	Carrier prevalence, (X1)†	APPSIMD (X2)^‡	IMD-predicted rate^§	AAQC^¶	Number of carriers/IMD case
1992	2.79	1.856	0.00580	2.63	25,014,717	17,252
1993	2.09	2.353	0.00341	2.78	31,825,516	29,359
1994	2.04	2.241	0.00349	2.10	30,211,677	28,637
1995	2.58	1.992	0.00496	2.04	26,641,182	20,152
1996	2.72	2.620	0.00399	2.51	34,746,741	25,088
1997	2.27	2.420	0.00360	2.61	31,799,375	27,797
1998	2.19	2.172	0.00387	2.25	28,293,959	25,839
1999	2.02	1.935	0.00401	2.16	24,990,644	24,941
2000	1.72	2.335	0.00284	2.01	29,899,981	35,259
2001	1.82	2.139	0.00327	1.82	27,133,125	30,590
2002	1.79	2.098	0.00327	1.85	26,384,436	30,608
2003	1.85	2.290	0.00309	1.81	28,555,695	32,376
2004	2.02	2.006	0.00386	1.90	24,806,647	25,921
2005	1.90	1.923	0.00383	2.01	23,608,051	26,115
2006	1.78	1.493	0.00457	1.92	18,199,540	21,901
2007	1.47	1.590	0.00354	1.88	19,262,233	28,244
2008	1.44	1.387	0.00399	1.49	16,698,407	25,073
2009	1.12	1.731	0.00249	1.52	20,738,600	40,191
2010	1.00	1.468	0.00262	1.12	17,520,208	38,170
2011	1.10	1.926	0.00220	0.95	22,989,542	45,524
2012	0.75	1.301	0.00221	1.16	15,480,263	45,264
2013	0.92	1.236	0.00285	0.90	14,676,973	35,112
2014	0.74	1.177	0.00242	0.66	13,884,822	41,324
2015	0.72	1.275	0.00218	0.63	14,157,912	45,967
Mean	1.70	1.873	0.00343	1.70	24,990,502	31,113
SD^#	0.62	0.421	0.00090	0.62	5,433,577	8,120

IMD/100,000 total population; ^†X₁ is expressed as a percentage; ^‡APPSIMD is expressed as an approximate proportion of the total population susceptible to invasive meningococcal disease, where APPSIMD = (IMD/AAQC) × 100%; ^§predicted IMD rate/100,000 total population. ^¶AAQC  = annual approximate quantity of carriers (number of infected people without clinical manifestations of invasive meningococcal disease); ^#SD = standard deviation.