Multiple Linear Regression Model of Meningococcal Disease in Ukraine: 1992–2015
Table 2
Indicators used for building linear regression for 1992–2015 IMD data from children of 0–14 years of age in Ukraine.
Year
Meningococcal disease, incidence, Y (age 0–14)
Prevalence of carriage among children, (X1)†
APPSIMD among healthy children aged 0–14, (X2)‡
IMD-predicted rate§
AAQC¶
Number of carriers/IMD case
1992
11.89
0.98
0.04657
11.29
2,799,994
6,195
1993
11.16
0.77
0.05573
11.53
2,187,512
6,396
1994
10.72
0.99
0.04125
10.18
2,797,353
9,646
1995
10.38
0.73
0.05422
10.86
2,016,011
8,881
1996
11.82
1.26
0.03579
11.23
3,353,170
8,341
1997
10.05
1.18
0.03335
9.96
3,058,046
7,569
1998
11.02
1.34
0.03032
10.69
3,357,296
6,506
1999
9.61
1.15
0.03209
9.43
2,766,959
5,601
2000
7.58
1.25
0.02237
8.00
2,856,649
5,203
2001
8.52
1.36
0.02418
9.44
2,968,831
5,408
2002
8.72
1.44
0.02321
9.94
2,985,671
4,895
2003
9.16
1.07
0.03257
8.82
2,118,231
4,450
2004
10.07
1.12
0.03451
9.70
2,115,410
4,362
2005
9.34
0.99
0.03729
9.24
1,815,270
3,645
2006
9.37
0.92
0.04020
9.27
1,629,424
3,519
2007
8.13
0.74
0.04292
8.29
1,281,344
3,172
2008
8.17
0.72
0.04395
8.36
1,228,660
3,461
2009
6.51
0.72
0.03500
6.16
1,208,599
3,640
2010
5.86
0.62
0.03616
5.58
1,050,988
3,612
2011
6.79
0.80
0.03273
6.35
1,347,199
3,795
2012
4.52
0.82
0.02117
3.82
1,393,352
4,707
2013
5.42
0.50
0,04140
5.74
867,009
9,223
2014
4.10
0.39
0,04000
4.42
687,038
8,179
2015
4.07
0.37
0,04190
4.67
630,662
6,930
Mean
8.46
0.93
0,03660
8.46
2,021,695
5,722
SD#
2.39
0.30
0,00940
2.34
880,682
2,038
IMD cases/100,000 children (age 0–14); †X1 is expressed as a percentage; ‡APPSIMD = (IMD/AAQC) × 100%; §predicted IMD rate/100,000 children. ¶AAQC = annual approximate quantity of carriers (i.e., # infected children displaying no IMD); #SD = standard deviation.
