Modelling the Potential Impact of Social Distancing on the COVID-19 Epidemic in South Africa

<div>A simulation model for the SEIR model for exposed and infected in the absence of any intervention, i.e., <span class="nowrap"><svg height="11.7782pt" id="M81" style="vertical-align:-3.42938pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.34882 28.3196 11.7782" width="28.3196pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M516 277C516 378 460 448 376 448C335 448 288 434 240 401C158 345 127 277 107 159C53 -161 38 -221 23 -247L28 -261C43 -260 95 -250 114 -226C122 -216 129 -199 146 -75C152 -29 157 0 164 31C182 9 206 -12 237 -12C267 -12 325 8 376 46C451 102 516 179 516 277ZM432 259C432 134 366 40 259 40C236 40 204 48 171 76L195 203C219 327 253 400 326 400C398 400 432 336 432 259Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,10.642,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,21.905,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z"></path></g></svg>.</span> The best-fit parameter values are as follows: <span class="nowrap"><svg height="8.68572pt" id="M82" style="vertical-align:-0.0498209pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 55.2914 8.68572" width="55.2914pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M671 0V28C608 36 593 47 562 130C495 309 432 486 368 665L336 656C270 481 202 311 134 139C98 47 84 39 20 28V0H241V28C167 38 156 47 178 115C217 236 276 383 327 530H329C375 398 437 223 484 92C499 47 489 37 424 28V0H671Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,12.543,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,23.806,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z"></path></g><g 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Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine

fig7

Figure 7

Figure 7: Modelling the Potential Impact of Social Distancing on the COVID-19 Epidemic in South Africa 