A Deterministic Model for Q Fever Transmission Dynamics within Dairy Cattle Herds: Using Sensitivity Analysis and Optimal Controls

<div>(a) The scatter diagrams for some selected parameters in <svg height="12.3054pt" id="M65" style="vertical-align:-3.29108pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.01432 19.0996 12.3054" width="19.0996pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M852 669C820 657 792 643 768 628C705 667 627 687 547 687C310 687 154 548 154 412C154 332 212 282 296 282C434 282 515 426 523 557H503C474 402 410 312 298 312C241 312 195 352 195 408C195 535 341 657 546 657C613 657 683 644 738 609C640 538 574 431 486 271C374 71 314 16 189 16C118 16 69 60 69 95H71C78 84 93 83 101 83C129 83 144 106 144 131C144 160 121 179 93 179C60 179 34 151 34 108C34 42 100 -15 207 -15C364 -15 491 73 603 304C614 297 639 293 650 293C681 293 683 254 683 245C683 181 599 150 599 70C599 21 645 -12 692 -12C747 -12 804 30 868 103L851 119C789 52 741 18 706 18C685 18 674 29 674 52C674 92 750 157 750 226C750 257 727 287 696 310V312C812 315 876 394 876 473C876 525 849 577 793 612C812 627 832 639 859 650L852 669ZM814 486C814 417 765 345 686 337C669 348 649 354 626 354C673 451 708 533 766 588C799 561 814 525 814 486Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.272,3.132)"><path d="M690 629C653 643 577 667 483 667C225 667 24 528 24 292C24 92 174 -17 367 -17C448 -17 534 1 570 10C592 34 642 131 658 174C648 180 639 186 629 192C562 89 499 21 382 21C223 21 130 138 130 298C130 467 255 627 462 627C582 627 643 589 650 462L686 466C689 517 688 580 690 629Z"></path></g></svg> (scatter plots of <svg height="12.7178pt" id="M66" style="vertical-align:-3.42947pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 85.1641 12.7178" width="85.1641pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M558 587C558 666 497 712 432 712C379 712 330 691 284 650C212 586 178 508 148 348L71 -65C49 -185 35 -229 23 -235L27 -261C49 -259 101 -251 124 -224C131 -216 138 -178 159 -24C171 66 197 200 227 356C264 550 295 668 393 668C443 668 479 632 479 575C479 516 446 458 383 418C361 404 344 398 318 397L296 350C395 338 460 281 460 192C460 110 411 40 300 40C258 40 215 55 192 69L181 51C191 18 222 -16 266 -16C308 -16 351 1 397 26C471 67 545 142 545 221C545 315 486 365 401 395C469 437 558 498 558 587Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,7.554,0)"><path d="M95 130C70 130 46 113 46 88C46 72 54 64 59 64C93 55 121 33 121 -3C121 -41 93 -68 44 -88L55 -117C117 -98 186 -56 186 22C186 91 131 130 95 130Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,12.697,0)"><path d="M671 0V28C608 36 593 47 562 130C495 309 432 486 368 665L336 656C270 481 202 311 134 139C98 47 84 39 20 28V0H241V28C167 38 156 47 178 115C217 236 276 383 327 530H329C375 398 437 223 484 92C499 47 489 37 424 28V0H671Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,21.608,0)"><path d="M95 130C70 130 46 113 46 88C46 72 54 64 59 64C93 55 121 33 121 -3C121 -41 93 -68 44 -88L55 -117C117 -98 186 -56 186 22C186 91 131 130 95 130Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,26.751,0)"><path d="M471 401C471 442 455 448 440 448C421 448 389 439 366 424C314 390 233 331 165 242H163L187 345C193 372 197 393 197 409C197 435 189 448 174 448C146 448 80 408 23 349L40 327C64 351 97 373 107 373C115 373 118 366 111 337L29 -4L36 -12C56 -4 83 3 110 9C123 69 136 126 150 172C227 283 336 381 377 381C392 381 396 370 379 298L326 74C290 -77 273 -172 273 -197C273 -219 316 -261 346 -261L353 -246C348 -227 352 -174 374 -66L457 310C467 352 471 381 471 401Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,33.175,0)"><path d="M95 130C70 130 46 113 46 88C46 72 54 64 59 64C93 55 121 33 121 -3C121 -41 93 -68 44 -88L55 -117C117 -98 186 -56 186 22C186 91 131 130 95 130Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,38.318,0)"><path d="M516 277C516 378 460 448 376 448C335 448 288 434 240 401C158 345 127 277 107 159C53 -161 38 -221 23 -247L28 -261C43 -260 95 -250 114 -226C122 -216 129 -199 146 -75C152 -29 157 0 164 31C182 9 206 -12 237 -12C267 -12 325 8 376 46C451 102 516 179 516 277ZM432 259C432 134 366 40 259 40C236 40 204 48 171 76L195 203C219 327 253 400 326 400C398 400 432 336 432 259Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,45.328,0)"><path d="M95 130C70 130 46 113 46 88C46 72 54 64 59 64C93 55 121 33 121 -3C121 -41 93 -68 44 -88L55 -117C117 -98 186 -56 186 22C186 91 131 130 95 130Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,50.471,0)"><path d="M545 106L524 126C493 85 467 65 455 65C438 65 427 113 405 238C448 295 498 362 543 439L533 448L478 435C453 386 423 331 398 295H395C370 404 347 448 282 448C169 448 23 309 23 153C23 54 65 -12 128 -12C203 -12 283 70 339 155H341C360 29 380 -12 411 -12C444 -12 491 11 545 106ZM333 204C265 95 210 54 169 54C137 54 113 96 113 171C113 302 191 405 252 405C301 405 318 306 333 204Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,57.856,0)"><path d="M95 130C70 130 46 113 46 88C46 72 54 64 59 64C93 55 121 33 121 -3C121 -41 93 -68 44 -88L55 -117C117 -98 186 -56 186 22C186 91 131 130 95 130Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,62.999,0)"><path d="M475 507C475 612 440 712 326 712C139 712 23 420 23 215C23 96 58 -12 180 -12C369 -12 475 293 475 507ZM391 522C391 486 387 448 379 394H126C155 538 222 677 310 677C386 677 391 571 391 522ZM373 346C344 193 283 22 189 22C126 22 106 114 106 196C106 243 111 293 118 346H373Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,69.474,0)"><path d="M95 130C70 130 46 113 46 88C46 72 54 64 59 64C93 55 121 33 121 -3C121 -41 93 -68 44 -88L55 -117C117 -98 186 -56 186 22C186 91 131 130 95 130Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,74.618,0)"><path d="M538 96L524 119C492 88 454 63 446 63C439 63 434 70 440 101C463 223 491 341 518 448H508L433 422L401 276C355 192 240 56 188 56C163 56 154 89 163 133C184 233 207 338 235 443L230 448L152 424L58 17C40 -60 23 -143 23 -185C23 -241 42 -261 63 -261C92 -261 117 -241 125 -227L124 -221C109 -209 89 -165 89 -103C89 -55 96 -13 105 26H107C121 -3 134 -12 151 -12C172 -12 194 -5 221 16C279 61 330 124 384 194H386C381 159 377 141 368 105C343 3 363 -12 383 -12C416 -12 486 35 538 96Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,81.834,0)"><path d="M95 130C70 130 46 113 46 88C46 72 54 64 59 64C93 55 121 33 121 -3C121 -41 93 -68 44 -88L55 -117C117 -98 186 -56 186 22C186 91 131 130 95 130Z"></path></g></svg> and <i>ν</i> in <span class="nowrap"><svg height="12.3054pt" id="M67" style="vertical-align:-3.29108pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.01432 19.0996 12.3054" width="19.0996pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M852 669C820 657 792 643 768 628C705 667 627 687 547 687C310 687 154 548 154 412C154 332 212 282 296 282C434 282 515 426 523 557H503C474 402 410 312 298 312C241 312 195 352 195 408C195 535 341 657 546 657C613 657 683 644 738 609C640 538 574 431 486 271C374 71 314 16 189 16C118 16 69 60 69 95H71C78 84 93 83 101 83C129 83 144 106 144 131C144 160 121 179 93 179C60 179 34 151 34 108C34 42 100 -15 207 -15C364 -15 491 73 603 304C614 297 639 293 650 293C681 293 683 254 683 245C683 181 599 150 599 70C599 21 645 -12 692 -12C747 -12 804 30 868 103L851 119C789 52 741 18 706 18C685 18 674 29 674 52C674 92 750 157 750 226C750 257 727 287 696 310V312C812 315 876 394 876 473C876 525 849 577 793 612C812 627 832 639 859 650L852 669ZM814 486C814 417 765 345 686 337C669 348 649 354 626 354C673 451 708 533 766 588C799 561 814 525 814 486Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.272,3.132)"><path d="M690 629C653 643 577 667 483 667C225 667 24 528 24 292C24 92 174 -17 367 -17C448 -17 534 1 570 10C592 34 642 131 658 174C648 180 639 186 629 192C562 89 499 21 382 21C223 21 130 138 130 298C130 467 255 627 462 627C582 627 643 589 650 462L686 466C689 517 688 580 690 629Z"></path></g></svg>).</span> (b) Perfect rank relations of the parameters in <svg height="12.3054pt" id="M68" style="vertical-align:-3.29108pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.01432 19.0996 12.3054" width="19.0996pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M852 669C820 657 792 643 768 628C705 667 627 687 547 687C310 687 154 548 154 412C154 332 212 282 296 282C434 282 515 426 523 557H503C474 402 410 312 298 312C241 312 195 352 195 408C195 535 341 657 546 657C613 657 683 644 738 609C640 538 574 431 486 271C374 71 314 16 189 16C118 16 69 60 69 95H71C78 84 93 83 101 83C129 83 144 106 144 131C144 160 121 179 93 179C60 179 34 151 34 108C34 42 100 -15 207 -15C364 -15 491 73 603 304C614 297 639 293 650 293C681 293 683 254 683 245C683 181 599 150 599 70C599 21 645 -12 692 -12C747 -12 804 30 868 103L851 119C789 52 741 18 706 18C685 18 674 29 674 52C674 92 750 157 750 226C750 257 727 287 696 310V312C812 315 876 394 876 473C876 525 849 577 793 612C812 627 832 639 859 650L852 669ZM814 486C814 417 765 345 686 337C669 348 649 354 626 354C673 451 708 533 766 588C799 561 814 525 814 486Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.272,3.132)"><path d="M690 629C653 643 577 667 483 667C225 667 24 528 24 292C24 92 174 -17 367 -17C448 -17 534 1 570 10C592 34 642 131 658 174C648 180 639 186 629 192C562 89 499 21 382 21C223 21 130 138 130 298C130 467 255 627 462 627C582 627 643 589 650 462L686 466C689 517 688 580 690 629Z"></path></g></svg> (Tornado plot of parameters in <span class="nowrap"><svg height="12.3054pt" id="M69" style="vertical-align:-3.29108pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.01432 19.0996 12.3054" width="19.0996pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M852 669C820 657 792 643 768 628C705 667 627 687 547 687C310 687 154 548 154 412C154 332 212 282 296 282C434 282 515 426 523 557H503C474 402 410 312 298 312C241 312 195 352 195 408C195 535 341 657 546 657C613 657 683 644 738 609C640 538 574 431 486 271C374 71 314 16 189 16C118 16 69 60 69 95H71C78 84 93 83 101 83C129 83 144 106 144 131C144 160 121 179 93 179C60 179 34 151 34 108C34 42 100 -15 207 -15C364 -15 491 73 603 304C614 297 639 293 650 293C681 293 683 254 683 245C683 181 599 150 599 70C599 21 645 -12 692 -12C747 -12 804 30 868 103L851 119C789 52 741 18 706 18C685 18 674 29 674 52C674 92 750 157 750 226C750 257 727 287 696 310V312C812 315 876 394 876 473C876 525 849 577 793 612C812 627 832 639 859 650L852 669ZM814 486C814 417 765 345 686 337C669 348 649 354 626 354C673 451 708 533 766 588C799 561 814 525 814 486Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.272,3.132)"><path d="M690 629C653 643 577 667 483 667C225 667 24 528 24 292C24 92 174 -17 367 -17C448 -17 534 1 570 10C592 34 642 131 658 174C648 180 639 186 629 192C562 89 499 21 382 21C223 21 130 138 130 298C130 467 255 627 462 627C582 627 643 589 650 462L686 466C689 517 688 580 690 629Z"></path></g></svg>),</span> (c) The coupling effect of both vaccination and environmental hygiene on <svg height="12.3054pt" id="M70" style="vertical-align:-3.29108pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.01432 19.0996 12.3054" width="19.0996pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M852 669C820 657 792 643 768 628C705 667 627 687 547 687C310 687 154 548 154 412C154 332 212 282 296 282C434 282 515 426 523 557H503C474 402 410 312 298 312C241 312 195 352 195 408C195 535 341 657 546 657C613 657 683 644 738 609C640 538 574 431 486 271C374 71 314 16 189 16C118 16 69 60 69 95H71C78 84 93 83 101 83C129 83 144 106 144 131C144 160 121 179 93 179C60 179 34 151 34 108C34 42 100 -15 207 -15C364 -15 491 73 603 304C614 297 639 293 650 293C681 293 683 254 683 245C683 181 599 150 599 70C599 21 645 -12 692 -12C747 -12 804 30 868 103L851 119C789 52 741 18 706 18C685 18 674 29 674 52C674 92 750 157 750 226C750 257 727 287 696 310V312C812 315 876 394 876 473C876 525 849 577 793 612C812 627 832 639 859 650L852 669ZM814 486C814 417 765 345 686 337C669 348 649 354 626 354C673 451 708 533 766 588C799 561 814 525 814 486Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.272,3.132)"><path d="M690 629C653 643 577 667 483 667C225 667 24 528 24 292C24 92 174 -17 367 -17C448 -17 534 1 570 10C592 34 642 131 658 174C648 180 639 186 629 192C562 89 499 21 382 21C223 21 130 138 130 298C130 467 255 627 462 627C582 627 643 589 650 462L686 466C689 517 688 580 690 629Z"></path></g></svg> (3D plot of <i>ε</i> and <svg height="6.04987pt" id="M71" style="vertical-align:-0.2325001pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -5.81737 5.98461 6.04987" width="5.98461pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M219 86C216 168 211 250 206 337C201 410 189 448 163 448C131 448 79 396 43 344L60 322C91 359 110 375 118 375S132 358 136 298C141 238 152 81 155 -12H182C242 62 331 177 390 258C435 321 451 360 451 391C450 424 432 448 408 448C390 448 372 435 366 419C362 410 362 401 366 394C373 383 376 367 376 350C376 283 262 138 221 86H219Z"></path></g></svg><svg height="12.3054pt" id="M72" style="vertical-align:-3.29108pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.01432 19.0996 12.3054" width="19.0996pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M852 669C820 657 792 643 768 628C705 667 627 687 547 687C310 687 154 548 154 412C154 332 212 282 296 282C434 282 515 426 523 557H503C474 402 410 312 298 312C241 312 195 352 195 408C195 535 341 657 546 657C613 657 683 644 738 609C640 538 574 431 486 271C374 71 314 16 189 16C118 16 69 60 69 95H71C78 84 93 83 101 83C129 83 144 106 144 131C144 160 121 179 93 179C60 179 34 151 34 108C34 42 100 -15 207 -15C364 -15 491 73 603 304C614 297 639 293 650 293C681 293 683 254 683 245C683 181 599 150 599 70C599 21 645 -12 692 -12C747 -12 804 30 868 103L851 119C789 52 741 18 706 18C685 18 674 29 674 52C674 92 750 157 750 226C750 257 727 287 696 310V312C812 315 876 394 876 473C876 525 849 577 793 612C812 627 832 639 859 650L852 669ZM814 486C814 417 765 345 686 337C669 348 649 354 626 354C673 451 708 533 766 588C799 561 814 525 814 486Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.272,3.132)"><path d="M690 629C653 643 577 667 483 667C225 667 24 528 24 292C24 92 174 -17 367 -17C448 -17 534 1 570 10C592 34 642 131 658 174C648 180 639 186 629 192C562 89 499 21 382 21C223 21 130 138 130 298C130 467 255 627 462 627C582 627 643 589 650 462L686 466C689 517 688 580 690 629Z"></path></g></svg>).</div>

Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine

fig2

Figure 2

Figure 2: A Deterministic Model for Q Fever Transmission Dynamics within Dairy Cattle Herds: Using Sensitivity Analysis and Optimal Controls 