Assessment of Three Mathematical Prediction Models for Forecasting the COVID-19 Outbreak in Iran and Turkey

Table 1

Comparison of the three mathematical models for estimating the peak values of confirmed and death cases of COVID-19 in Iran and Turkey.

Peak of the COVID-19 outbreak	Observed values	Estimated by the recursive-based model	Estimated by the Boltzmann function-based model	Estimated by Beesham’s model
(a) Iran
Confirmed cases (30 March 2020)	3186	2857	2302	1929
ARE	—	0.103	0.278	0.395
Death cases (5 April 2020)	158	134	156	108
ARE	—	0.152	0.015	0.314
(b) Turkey
Confirmed cases (11 April 2020)	5138	4900	4225	3920
ARE	—	0.046	0.178	0.237
Death cases (19 April 2020)	127	117	130	105
ARE	—	0.079	0.021	0.170