A Mathematical Description of the Dynamics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): A Case Study of Brazil

<table class="table-group" id="tab1"><tr><td><table class="table"><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="3"><hr/></td></tr><tr class="thead"><td class="align_left">Parameter</td><td class="align_center">Description</td><td class="align_center">Value</td></tr><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="3"><hr/></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><span style="width: 17.9995ptpx;"><svg height="11.7978pt" id="M29" style="vertical-align:-0.2063999pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -11.5914 17.9995 11.7978" width="17.9995pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M548 455L523 469C505 448 490 439 461 439C416 439 374 447 316 447C144 447 23 310 23 161C23 47 89 -12 179 -12C312 -12 429 106 429 244C429 303 419 344 368 386L371 388C404 383 440 378 474 378C507 378 530 411 548 455ZM350 274C350 191 308 25 198 25C144 25 108 75 108 157C108 264 170 395 276 395C296 395 320 384 333 360C347 334 350 316 350 274Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,7.347,-5.741)"><path d="M556 236V289H56V236H556Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.907,-5.741)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">Mean latent period</td><td class="align_center">3 days</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><span style="width: 17.1644ptpx;"><svg height="15.0208pt" id="M30" style="vertical-align:-3.429399pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -11.5914 17.1644 15.0208" width="17.1644pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M478 372C478 418 458 448 431 448C409 448 389 431 389 410C389 404 391 400 394 395C398 388 406 371 406 348C406 253 308 122 251 51H249C254 122 249 257 231 336C212 421 189 448 159 448C126 448 75 412 23 327L48 306C83 354 103 371 115 371C125 371 134 360 144 334C185 224 192 64 183 -19C146 -100 116 -202 110 -244L125 -261C154 -259 208 -234 222 -220C222 -194 225 -84 235 -23C247 -3 273 36 308 79C379 165 478 288 478 372Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.516,-5.741)"><path d="M556 236V289H56V236H556Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.076,-5.741)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">Mean infectious period</td><td class="align_center">5 days</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><span style="width: 17.1644ptpx;"><svg height="15.535pt" id="M31" style="vertical-align:-3.9436pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -11.5914 17.1644 15.535" width="17.1644pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M478 372C478 418 458 448 431 448C409 448 389 431 389 410C389 404 391 400 394 395C398 388 406 371 406 348C406 253 308 122 251 51H249C254 122 249 257 231 336C212 421 189 448 159 448C126 448 75 412 23 327L48 306C83 354 103 371 115 371C125 371 134 360 144 334C185 224 192 64 183 -19C146 -100 116 -202 110 -244L125 -261C154 -259 208 -234 222 -220C222 -194 225 -84 235 -23C247 -3 273 36 308 79C379 165 478 288 478 372Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.516,-5.741)"><path d="M556 236V289H56V236H556Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.076,-5.741)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,5.668,3.784)"><path d="M636 22C611 29 589 38 560 74C536 104 518 134 495 173L430 300C518 328 592 392 592 492C592 555 563 594 528 618C491 643 435 650 377 650H140L131 618C222 610 223 601 208 518L137 136C121 43 116 40 27 32L18 0H295L300 32C212 40 206 42 223 138L248 279H296C334 279 350 272 369 230C393 174 413 140 441 94C482 24 523 1 626 -8L636 22ZM497 480C497 422 468 374 417 343C387 324 353 315 304 315H255L298 556C303 583 309 598 319 603C331 610 348 613 367 613C448 613 497 573 497 480Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">Adjusted removed period</td><td class="align_center">22 days</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><i>d</i></td><td class="align_center">Proportion of severe cases</td><td class="align_center">0.2</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><span style="width: 17.8299ptpx;"><svg height="11.7978pt" id="M32" style="vertical-align:-0.2063999pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -11.5914 17.8299 11.7978" width="17.8299pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M529 97L508 118C475 75 449 58 438 58C428 58 421 66 415 104C393 234 374 403 364 496C345 670 307 712 254 712C220 712 174 691 153 669L161 645C176 653 194 658 206 658C237 658 261 640 278 562C287 522 290 483 293 434C223 269 110 105 23 9L32 -12C59 -6 85 0 108 7C152 64 251 252 300 366C307 297 315 221 337 82C346 24 363 -12 393 -12C425 -12 475 13 529 97Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,7.174,-5.741)"><path d="M556 236V289H56V236H556Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.734,-5.741)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">Mean duration of public reaction</td><td class="align_center">11.2 days</td></tr><tr class="table-tr"><td colspan="3"><hr class="tbody-hr"/></td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine

tab1

Table 1

Table 1: A Mathematical Description of the Dynamics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): A Case Study of Brazil 