A Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study of Bangkok, Thailand

<table class="table-group" id="tab4"><tr><td><table class="table"><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="3"><hr/></td></tr><tr class="thead"><td class="align_left">Parameters</td><td class="align_center">Parameter value</td><td class="align_center"><span style="width: 30.5993ptpx;"><svg height="11.927pt" id="M198" style="vertical-align:-3.291101pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 30.5993 11.927" width="30.5993pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M610 18C585 26 567 34 540 68C517 97 499 128 476 171C452 215 425 276 413 304C496 332 570 394 570 494C570 555 545 595 509 619S419 650 364 650H139L133 622C216 615 219 612 203 527L129 132C112 40 105 36 23 28L17 0H279L285 28C199 34 194 40 211 132L239 284H284C320 284 334 275 351 236C374 182 394 140 420 93C459 23 495 -1 592 -8H600L610 18ZM480 485C480 424 449 372 403 342C374 323 338 316 293 316H245L291 562C296 589 301 601 311 608S337 618 358 618C432 618 480 575 480 485Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,8.086,3.132)"><path d="M390 111C344 68 312 56 269 56C212 56 118 102 118 241C118 346 175 401 241 401C277 401 312 388 342 360C350 352 355 349 361 349C372 349 394 371 394 392C394 403 391 411 378 422C362 436 329 449 288 449H287C250 449 190 432 138 392C71 341 37 274 37 197C37 90 112 -12 238 -12C297 -12 363 32 407 90L390 111Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.081,3.132)"><path d="M478 437H300V411C357 404 363 393 347 345C325 280 293 190 258 107C229 178 188 284 163 354C147 397 149 405 203 411V437H-2V411C52 403 59 396 82 339C130 222 176 109 220 -11H248C304 138 356 261 390 336C417 395 425 404 478 411V437Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,16.222,3.132)"><path d="M517 51L485 54C448 58 441 63 441 115V712C404 700 337 684 285 678V653C357 648 362 645 362 580V437C339 446 309 449 295 449C159 449 38 340 38 201C38 61 143 -12 223 -12C234 -12 261 -6 301 17L362 53V-12C420 9 495 22 517 26V51ZM362 85C338 67 301 51 266 51C201 51 128 109 128 228C128 373 212 411 259 411C296 411 338 395 362 360V85Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,21.075,3.132)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,25.506,3.132)"><path d="M247 635C116 635 39 518 39 421C39 315 113 237 221 237C239 237 258 241 281 253L349 289C315 140 204 42 60 19L66 -15C90 -15 153 -5 207 16C344 70 447 199 447 385C447 521 373 635 247 635ZM231 598C329 598 356 478 356 390C356 371 355 347 352 325C330 309 297 297 262 297C179 297 127 369 127 456C127 515 156 598 231 598Z"></path></g></svg></span></td></tr><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="3"><hr/></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><span style="width: 8.63352ptpx;"><svg height="10.2124pt" id="M199" style="vertical-align:-3.42943pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -6.78297 8.63352 10.2124" width="8.63352pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M642 419L635 448C586 435 552 411 532 392C518 379 509 351 496 304C484 260 462 196 445 150C424 93 388 40 314 30L413 508L406 510L344 491L257 36C205 46 175 84 175 169C175 195 180 241 185 277C189 304 190 331 190 358C190 413 175 448 141 448C111 448 69 429 23 373L30 347C51 365 68 375 81 375C93 375 108 368 108 327C108 307 104 268 101 239C98 211 95 180 95 155C95 33 159 -8 248 -14L213 -186C206 -220 221 -254 230 -261L261 -230L306 -11C339 -4 366 6 389 20C431 46 473 87 503 155C533 224 557 286 571 325C586 367 606 393 642 419Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">0.1 (10%)</td><td class="align_center"><span style="width: 61.8418ptpx;"><svg height="8.98582pt" id="M200" style="vertical-align:-0.6370001pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.34882 61.8418 8.98582" width="61.8418pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" 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379 127 364L153 550Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,44.039,0)"><path d="M512 230V281L75 514V456L453 256V254L75 55V-3L512 230Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,55.302,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z"></path></g></svg></span></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><span style="width: 8.63352ptpx;"><svg height="10.2124pt" id="M201" style="vertical-align:-3.42943pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -6.78297 8.63352 10.2124" width="8.63352pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M642 419L635 448C586 435 552 411 532 392C518 379 509 351 496 304C484 260 462 196 445 150C424 93 388 40 314 30L413 508L406 510L344 491L257 36C205 46 175 84 175 169C175 195 180 241 185 277C189 304 190 331 190 358C190 413 175 448 141 448C111 448 69 429 23 373L30 347C51 365 68 375 81 375C93 375 108 368 108 327C108 307 104 268 101 239C98 211 95 180 95 155C95 33 159 -8 248 -14L213 -186C206 -220 221 -254 230 -261L261 -230L306 -11C339 -4 366 6 389 20C431 46 473 87 503 155C533 224 557 286 571 325C586 367 606 393 642 419Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">0.5 (50%)</td><td class="align_center"><span style="width: 61.8418ptpx;"><svg height="8.98582pt" id="M202" style="vertical-align:-0.6370001pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.34882 61.8418 8.98582" width="61.8418pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,6.24,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z"></path></g><g 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287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,34.164,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,44.036,0)"><path d="M512 -3V55L134 254V256L512 456V514L75 281V230L512 -3Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,55.299,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z"></path></g></svg></span></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><span style="width: 8.63352ptpx;"><svg height="10.2124pt" id="M203" style="vertical-align:-3.42943pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -6.78297 8.63352 10.2124" width="8.63352pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M642 419L635 448C586 435 552 411 532 392C518 379 509 351 496 304C484 260 462 196 445 150C424 93 388 40 314 30L413 508L406 510L344 491L257 36C205 46 175 84 175 169C175 195 180 241 185 277C189 304 190 331 190 358C190 413 175 448 141 448C111 448 69 429 23 373L30 347C51 365 68 375 81 375C93 375 108 368 108 327C108 307 104 268 101 239C98 211 95 180 95 155C95 33 159 -8 248 -14L213 -186C206 -220 221 -254 230 -261L261 -230L306 -11C339 -4 366 6 389 20C431 46 473 87 503 155C533 224 557 286 571 325C586 367 606 393 642 419Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">0.7 (70%)</td><td class="align_center"><span style="width: 61.8418ptpx;"><svg height="8.98582pt" id="M204" style="vertical-align:-0.6370001pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.34882 61.8418 8.98582" width="61.8418pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,6.24,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,9.204,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,15.444,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,21.684,0)"><path d="M285 378C315 398 338 416 353 432C373 451 384 474 384 503C384 579 325 635 236 635H235C182 635 136 610 108 579L65 516L85 496C110 533 150 575 205 575C258 575 300 543 300 481C300 407 232 369 141 339L147 310C163 315 188 321 211 321C268 321 338 284 338 192C338 94 288 40 217 40C160 40 119 68 93 91C85 98 77 97 69 91C60 84 47 71 46 58C44 46 48 35 62 22C75 10 116 -12 162 -12C234 -12 424 62 424 224C424 297 373 359 285 376V378Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,27.924,0)"><path d="M285 378C315 398 338 416 353 432C373 451 384 474 384 503C384 579 325 635 236 635H235C182 635 136 610 108 579L65 516L85 496C110 533 150 575 205 575C258 575 300 543 300 481C300 407 232 369 141 339L147 310C163 315 188 321 211 321C268 321 338 284 338 192C338 94 288 40 217 40C160 40 119 68 93 91C85 98 77 97 69 91C60 84 47 71 46 58C44 46 48 35 62 22C75 10 116 -12 162 -12C234 -12 424 62 424 224C424 297 373 359 285 376V378Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,34.164,0)"><path d="M412 140C382 77 369 73 315 73H129L270 222C362 320 402 379 402 466C402 571 322 635 234 635C177 635 130 609 99 576L42 495L64 475C90 514 133 568 201 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<div>Numerical simulation of the varying effects of the parameter <span class="nowrap"><svg height="10.2124pt" id="M197" style="vertical-align:-3.42943pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -6.78297 8.63352 10.2124" width="8.63352pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M642 419L635 448C586 435 552 411 532 392C518 379 509 351 496 304C484 260 462 196 445 150C424 93 388 40 314 30L413 508L406 510L344 491L257 36C205 46 175 84 175 169C175 195 180 241 185 277C189 304 190 331 190 358C190 413 175 448 141 448C111 448 69 429 23 373L30 347C51 365 68 375 81 375C93 375 108 368 108 327C108 307 104 268 101 239C98 211 95 180 95 155C95 33 159 -8 248 -14L213 -186C206 -220 221 -254 230 -261L261 -230L306 -11C339 -4 366 6 389 20C431 46 473 87 503 155C533 224 557 286 571 325C586 367 606 393 642 419Z"></path></g></svg>.</span></div>

Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine

tab4

Table 4

Table 4: A Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study of Bangkok, Thailand 