COVID-19 Pandemic Data Modeling in Pakistan Using Time-Series SIR

<table class="table-group" id="tab2"><tr><td><table class="table"><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="7"><hr/></td></tr><tr class="thead"><td class="align_left">Distributions</td><td class="align_center">Link</td><td class="align_center"><span style="width: 48.915ptpx;"><svg height="11.5564pt" id="M108" style="vertical-align:-2.26807pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 48.915 11.5564" width="48.915pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M861 0V28C774 35 771 41 768 147L759 509C756 612 762 614 851 622V650H681L449 149L221 650H57V622C148 613 153 609 144 479L130 271C123 166 117 123 111 88C104 46 85 34 26 28V0H259V28C192 35 169 42 167 90C166 130 166 173 170 256L185 541H187L411 7H431L675 555H679L683 147C683 41 680 35 598 28V0H861Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,11.583,0)"><path d="M673 0V28C608 34 594 43 563 129C499 303 432 494 370 665L339 656L132 132C98 43 84 37 20 28V0H238V28C162 35 154 45 175 108C188 150 203 192 219 237H432C454 176 474 122 487 83S491 36 428 28V0H673ZM418 280H234C265 362 296 450 328 535H330L418 280Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,20.566,0)"><path d="M46 650V622C120 617 128 613 128 525V125C128 42 120 34 40 28V0H311V28C221 34 212 39 212 124V281L286 262C297 261 316 261 331 263C429 275 526 338 526 468C526 533 501 579 462 609C422 638 364 650 293 650H46ZM212 559C212 588 215 600 223 606C230 613 251 618 279 618C361 618 430 572 430 464C430 337 350 302 285 302C252 302 225 309 212 314V559Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,27.82,0)"><path d="M517 162C503 123 484 88 467 68C445 42 417 34 341 34C291 34 256 34 237 47C219 59 213 81 213 128V317H308C395 317 402 311 415 240H444V431H415C403 364 398 356 307 356H213V584C213 613 215 616 246 616H322C394 616 421 609 435 587C448 566 458 544 467 502L496 506C493 557 488 625 488 650H42V622C120 616 128 612 128 523V125C128 43 120 35 29 28V0H511C520 31 540 125 546 158L517 162Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,35.336,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,39.834,0)"><path d="M324 430H196L233 583L223 592L145 529L120 430H54L29 396L31 388H111L56 126C33 15 54 -12 77 -12C137 -12 214 57 250 95L233 119C208 92 155 59 138 59C126 59 120 70 131 125L186 390L298 394L324 430Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,44.267,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center"><span style="width: 41.6338ptpx;"><svg height="11.5564pt" id="M109" style="vertical-align:-2.26807pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 41.6338 11.5564" width="41.6338pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M861 0V28C774 35 771 41 768 147L759 509C756 612 762 614 851 622V650H681L449 149L221 650H57V622C148 613 153 609 144 479L130 271C123 166 117 123 111 88C104 46 85 34 26 28V0H259V28C192 35 169 42 167 90C166 130 166 173 170 256L185 541H187L411 7H431L675 555H679L683 147C683 41 680 35 598 28V0H861Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,11.583,0)"><path d="M673 0V28C608 34 594 43 563 129C499 303 432 494 370 665L339 656L132 132C98 43 84 37 20 28V0H238V28C162 35 154 45 175 108C188 150 203 192 219 237H432C454 176 474 122 487 83S491 36 428 28V0H673ZM418 280H234C265 362 296 450 328 535H330L418 280Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,20.566,0)"><path d="M517 162C503 123 484 88 467 68C445 42 417 34 341 34C291 34 256 34 237 47C219 59 213 81 213 128V317H308C395 317 402 311 415 240H444V431H415C403 364 398 356 307 356H213V584C213 613 215 616 246 616H322C394 616 421 609 435 587C448 566 458 544 467 502L496 506C493 557 488 625 488 650H42V622C120 616 128 612 128 523V125C128 43 120 35 29 28V0H511C520 31 540 125 546 158L517 162Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,28.055,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,32.553,0)"><path d="M324 430H196L233 583L223 592L145 529L120 430H54L29 396L31 388H111L56 126C33 15 54 -12 77 -12C137 -12 214 57 250 95L233 119C208 92 155 59 138 59C126 59 120 70 131 125L186 390L298 394L324 430Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,36.986,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center"><span style="width: 20.6122ptpx;"><svg height="12.7178pt" id="M110" style="vertical-align:-3.42947pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 20.6122 12.7178" width="20.6122pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><rect height="0.65243" width="7.03326" x="0" y="-8.52081"></rect><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M516 277C516 378 460 448 376 448C335 448 288 434 240 401C158 345 127 277 107 159C53 -161 38 -221 23 -247L28 -261C43 -260 95 -250 114 -226C122 -216 129 -199 146 -75C152 -29 157 0 164 31C182 9 206 -12 237 -12C267 -12 325 8 376 46C451 102 516 179 516 277ZM432 259C432 134 366 40 259 40C236 40 204 48 171 76L195 203C219 327 253 400 326 400C398 400 432 336 432 259Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,7.033,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,11.531,0)"><path d="M324 430H196L233 583L223 592L145 529L120 430H54L29 396L31 388H111L56 126C33 15 54 -12 77 -12C137 -12 214 57 250 95L233 119C208 92 155 59 138 59C126 59 120 70 131 125L186 390L298 394L324 430Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,15.964,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center"><span style="width: 52.8427ptpx;"><svg height="12.7178pt" id="M111" style="vertical-align:-3.42947pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 52.8427 12.7178" width="52.8427pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M861 0V28C774 35 771 41 768 147L759 509C756 612 762 614 851 622V650H681L449 149L221 650H57V622C148 613 153 609 144 479L130 271C123 166 117 123 111 88C104 46 85 34 26 28V0H259V28C192 35 169 42 167 90C166 130 166 173 170 256L185 541H187L411 7H431L675 555H679L683 147C683 41 680 35 598 28V0H861Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,11.583,0)"><path d="M673 0V28C608 34 594 43 563 129C499 303 432 494 370 665L339 656L132 132C98 43 84 37 20 28V0H238V28C162 35 154 45 175 108C188 150 203 192 219 237H432C454 176 474 122 487 83S491 36 428 28V0H673ZM418 280H234C265 362 296 450 328 535H330L418 280Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,20.566,0)"><path d="M46 650V622C120 617 128 613 128 525V125C128 42 120 34 40 28V0H311V28C221 34 212 39 212 124V281L286 262C297 261 316 261 331 263C429 275 526 338 526 468C526 533 501 579 462 609C422 638 364 650 293 650H46ZM212 559C212 588 215 600 223 606C230 613 251 618 279 618C361 618 430 572 430 464C430 337 350 302 285 302C252 302 225 309 212 314V559Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,27.82,0)"><path d="M517 162C503 123 484 88 467 68C445 42 417 34 341 34C291 34 256 34 237 47C219 59 213 81 213 128V317H308C395 317 402 311 415 240H444V431H415C403 364 398 356 307 356H213V584C213 613 215 616 246 616H322C394 616 421 609 435 587C448 566 458 544 467 502L496 506C493 557 488 625 488 650H42V622C120 616 128 612 128 523V125C128 43 120 35 29 28V0H511C520 31 540 125 546 158L517 162Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,35.336,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,39.834,0)"><path d="M619 670C619 686 593 712 555 712S459 686 410 634S335 504 320 430H250L219 400L222 388H312L258 73C223 -133 201 -166 187 -180C175 -191 158 -199 140 -199C123 -199 88 -188 74 -172C68 -166 63 -164 54 -171C38 -185 23 -201 23 -215C23 -236 60 -261 93 -261C122 -261 161 -247 207 -200C268 -138 300 -71 337 94C365 220 376 277 394 387L501 399L521 430H401C432 623 464 665 501 665C524 665 544 651 567 627C577 617 583 618 592 625C601 631 619 651 619 670Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,48.186,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center"><span style="width: 45.5615ptpx;"><svg height="12.7178pt" id="M112" style="vertical-align:-3.42947pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 45.5615 12.7178" width="45.5615pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M861 0V28C774 35 771 41 768 147L759 509C756 612 762 614 851 622V650H681L449 149L221 650H57V622C148 613 153 609 144 479L130 271C123 166 117 123 111 88C104 46 85 34 26 28V0H259V28C192 35 169 42 167 90C166 130 166 173 170 256L185 541H187L411 7H431L675 555H679L683 147C683 41 680 35 598 28V0H861Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,11.583,0)"><path d="M673 0V28C608 34 594 43 563 129C499 303 432 494 370 665L339 656L132 132C98 43 84 37 20 28V0H238V28C162 35 154 45 175 108C188 150 203 192 219 237H432C454 176 474 122 487 83S491 36 428 28V0H673ZM418 280H234C265 362 296 450 328 535H330L418 280Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,20.566,0)"><path d="M517 162C503 123 484 88 467 68C445 42 417 34 341 34C291 34 256 34 237 47C219 59 213 81 213 128V317H308C395 317 402 311 415 240H444V431H415C403 364 398 356 307 356H213V584C213 613 215 616 246 616H322C394 616 421 609 435 587C448 566 458 544 467 502L496 506C493 557 488 625 488 650H42V622C120 616 128 612 128 523V125C128 43 120 35 29 28V0H511C520 31 540 125 546 158L517 162Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,28.055,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,32.553,0)"><path d="M619 670C619 686 593 712 555 712S459 686 410 634S335 504 320 430H250L219 400L222 388H312L258 73C223 -133 201 -166 187 -180C175 -191 158 -199 140 -199C123 -199 88 -188 74 -172C68 -166 63 -164 54 -171C38 -185 23 -201 23 -215C23 -236 60 -261 93 -261C122 -261 161 -247 207 -200C268 -138 300 -71 337 94C365 220 376 277 394 387L501 399L521 430H401C432 623 464 665 501 665C524 665 544 651 567 627C577 617 583 618 592 625C601 631 619 651 619 670Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,40.905,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z"></path></g></svg></span></td></tr><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="7"><hr/></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">Quasi-Poisson</td><td class="align_center">Log</td><td class="align_center">38.09</td><td class="align_center">619.71</td><td class="align_center">0.13</td><td class="align_center">18.5862</td><td class="align_center">650.3652</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">Poisson</td><td class="align_center">Log</td><td class="align_center">38.16</td><td class="align_center">621.04</td><td class="align_center">0.13</td><td class="align_center">18.7826</td><td class="align_center">651.3254</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">Gaussian</td><td class="align_center">Log</td><td class="align_center">36.58</td><td class="align_center">617.39</td><td class="align_center">0.13</td><td class="align_center">17.9658</td><td class="align_center">643.2589</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">Gaussian</td><td class="align_center">Identity</td><td class="align_center">36.95</td><td class="align_center">620.27</td><td class="align_center">0.13</td><td class="align_center">17.4062</td><td class="align_center">640.2154</td></tr><tr class="table-tr"><td colspan="7"><hr class="tbody-hr"/></td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

<div>MAPE and MAE using the first 500 days as training data and 10 days as testing data using different distributions.</div>

Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine

COVID-19 Pandemic Data Modeling in Pakistan Using Time-Series SIR

Table 2