Predicting the Rise of EU Right-Wing Populism in Response to Unbalanced Immigration

Figure 5

Breakdown of the causes of right-wing populism. Figure 4 shows that the probability of RW populism, , suddenly increases as society approaches a tipping point but remains silent on the underlying causes. Here we discern between the contributions of local outsider influence (assumption (ii)) and mutual insider contagion (assumption (iii)). Far from the tipping point, mainly responds to local outsider influence (ii). By contrast, as the network approaches its tipping point, mutual insider contagion (iii) takes over and accelerates the transition to RW populist dominance. Parameter values are with an average degree of 15, , , , , and .