Optimal Investment Timing and Size of a Logistics Park: A Real Options Perspective

<table class="table-group" id="tab4"><tr><td><table class="table"><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="4"><hr/></td></tr><tr class="thead"><td class="align_left">Government subsidy</td><td class="align_center">Method</td><td class="align_center">Estimated investment timing (year)</td><td class="align_center">Optimal investment size (million tons)</td></tr><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="4"><hr/></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left" rowspan="2"><span style="width: 26.7929ptpx;"><svg height="8.55521pt" id="M104" style="vertical-align:-0.2063904pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.34882 26.7929 8.55521" width="26.7929pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M393 379C402 394 400 411 393 422C384 437 365 448 348 448C301 448 237 372 186 285H182L193 335C210 408 205 448 178 448C150 448 80 402 29 344L45 321C80 355 114 373 122 373C128 373 130 365 124 330C106 228 76 98 50 -5L57 -12C82 -5 112 3 132 6L172 203C196 256 234 304 254 329C275 355 293 367 306 367C318 367 330 360 342 348C347 343 355 343 365 350S386 367 393 379Z" id="g113-115"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,9.12,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z" id="g117-34"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,20.383,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z" id="g113-49"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">NPV</td><td class="align_center">2010.85</td><td class="align_center">—</td></tr><tr><td class="align_center">RO</td><td class="align_center">2021.00</td><td class="align_center">42.56</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left" rowspan="2"><span style="width: 42.2948ptpx;"><svg height="8.55521pt" id="M105" style="vertical-align:-0.2063904pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.34882 42.2948 8.55521" width="42.2948pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M393 379C402 394 400 411 393 422C384 437 365 448 348 448C301 448 237 372 186 285H182L193 335C210 408 205 448 178 448C150 448 80 402 29 344L45 321C80 355 114 373 122 373C128 373 130 365 124 330C106 228 76 98 50 -5L57 -12C82 -5 112 3 132 6L172 203C196 256 234 304 254 329C275 355 293 367 306 367C318 367 330 360 342 348C347 343 355 343 365 350S386 367 393 379Z" id="g113-115"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,9.12,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z" id="g117-34"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,20.383,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z" id="g113-49"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,26.623,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z" id="g113-47"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,29.587,0)"><path d="M153 550H386L412 615L406 623H120L82 318C104 327 142 338 184 338C294 338 347 275 347 187C347 112 305 39 221 39C160 39 119 71 97 89C88 97 80 96 71 90C59 80 50 67 49 57C48 45 52 36 66 23C80 9 123 -12 169 -12C221 -11 288 15 342 59C403 109 431 165 431 225C431 308 366 395 238 395C212 395 165 379 127 364L153 550Z" id="g113-54"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,35.827,0)"><path d="M249 635C141 635 70 555 70 471C70 401 114 353 179 316C143 294 106 267 90 252C68 231 45 202 45 157C45 50 130 -12 237 -12C322 -12 435 52 435 169C435 256 372 304 303 343C349 374 375 398 383 407C401 429 411 458 411 487C411 569 344 635 249 635ZM238 603C285 603 337 567 337 482C337 422 310 385 276 358C205 393 145 426 145 500C145 552 179 603 238 603ZM248 20C183 20 125 70 125 163C125 218 158 268 206 300C284 261 355 217 355 143C355 66 308 20 248 20Z" id="g113-57"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">NPV</td><td class="align_center">2010.40</td><td class="align_center">—</td></tr><tr><td class="align_center">RO</td><td class="align_center">2020.00</td><td class="align_center">40.25</td></tr><tr class="table-tr"><td colspan="4"><hr class="tbody-hr"/></td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

Estimated timing of investment and optimal investment size in logistics park.

Complexity

tab4

Table 4

Table 4: Optimal Investment Timing and Size of a Logistics Park: A Real Options Perspective 