Research Article

The Portfolio Balanced Risk Index Model and Analysis of Examples of Large-Scale Infrastructure Project

Table 2

Survey results of main risk factors through the whole life cycle of a major infrastructure project.

StagesSequence numberRisk factorsOccurrence probabilitySeverity
MeanMedianModeStandard deviationMeanMedianModeS.D

Decision stage1Incorrect project orientation3.1883.03.00.7344.0834.04.00.767
2Incorrect market demand forecasting3.9584.03.00.8243.6464.04.00.911
3Thoughtless about inflation impact3.0833.03.00.7393.1953.03.00.798
4Incorrect estimation about project investment3.253.03.00.5263.2293.03.00.515
6Incorrect estimation about
Investment return
3.1673.03.00.5593.1253.03.00.64
6Thoughtless about financing difficulty3.253.03.00.5263.0833.03.00.739
7Government policy changes3.4173.03.00.7673.53.03.00.744
8Lack of external experts consultation3.1673.03.00.6953.2293.03.00.515
9Thoughtless about project impact3.1673.03.00.5593.1253.03.00.64
10Wrong decision-making process or method3.6883.03.00.8293.3963.03.00.792
Design stage11Inability or inexperience of design team3.1673.03.00.5593.1253.03.00.64
12Lack of field investigation and not adjusting measures to local conditions3.253.03.00.5263.2293.03.00.515
13Insufficient communication between designer and owner3.1673.03.00.5593.0213.03.00.699
14Lack of innovation and applicability of design plan3.6463.03.00.8123.8334.03.00.834
15Lack of designers’ full participation3.023.03.00.6993.2293.03.00.515
Construction stage16Instability of safety equipment performance3.1663.03.00.6953.1243.03.00.64
17Financing difficulty or rising costs3.253.03.00.5263.2293.03.00.515
18Improved environmental protection requirements on construction site3.1643.03.00.5593.1233.03.00.64
19Materials and equipment supply not in time3.253.03.00.5263.2293.03.00.515
20Lack of experienced construction personnel3.253.03.00.5263.1463.03.00.772
21Inability or irresponsibility of contractors3.3333.03.00.5193.2713.03.00.536
22Inability or irresponsibility of supervisors3.253.03.00.5263.2293.03.00.515
23Nontimely funding3.8334.03.00.8833.8964.04.00.831
24Material price increase3.3753.03.00.4893.2923.03.00.504
26Lack of scientific construction process and method3.7714.04.00.8573.8334.03.00.808
26Legal disputes of related subject3.3743.03.00.4893.2913.03.00.504
27Worsening social order of project area3.3333.03.00.5193.2713.03.00.536
28Opposition and obstruction to project construction3.1253.03.00.7033.9584.03.00.824
29Lack of good communication and cooperation among subjects3.9174.03.00.8213.754.03.00.863
30Bad weather or major natural disasters2.9583.03.00.7133.8754.03.00.841
Operation stage31Trial operation effect can not meet the design requirements3.0833.03.00.7393.1253.03.00.64
32Instability of equipment performance3.253.03.00.5263.2293.03.00.515
33Speedy technology and equipment renewal3.3733.03.00.4893.2903.03.00.504
34Technology and equipment maintenance is not timely3.3333.03.00.5193.2713.03.00.536
36Rising operating costs3.0833.03.00.7393.1883.03.00.798
36Sudden events2.9793.03.00.6993.2923.03.00.504
36Major natural disasters2.9583.03.00.7133.9174.03.00.846
37Lack of a clear accountability system3.3713.03.00.4893.2893.03.00.504
38Lack of operation management or experiences3.3333.03.00.5193.2713.03.00.536