An Application of the Coherent Noise Model for the Prediction of Aftershock Magnitude Time Series

Figure 10

Receiver Operating Characteristics (red squares) when using as a predictor for for the aftershock time series of the second Superstition Hills, the Big Bear aftershock, the first Superstition Hills, and the Joshua Tree EQs (see Table 1). In each case, the colored contours present the value to obtain by chance an ROC curve based on -ellipses [95]; the -ellipses with %, 5%, and 1% are also shown. The red arrows indicate the points on the ROC diagram that correspond to and that coincide with the values of just before the occurrence of the second Superstition Hills and the Landers EQ obtained from the analysis of the aftershocks of the first Superstition Hills and Joshua Tree EQs, respectively.

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