An Application of the Coherent Noise Model for the Prediction of Aftershock Magnitude Time Series

<div>Comparison of (a) AUC and (b) <svg height="10.2124pt" id="M348" style="vertical-align:-3.42943pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -6.78297 7.83752 10.2124" width="7.83752pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M570 304C570 398 525 448 414 448C385 448 343 445 312 434L329 511L321 518C297 504 262 482 244 460L233 411C195 397 159 381 128 358L135 332C160 347 189 360 224 373L111 -147C97 -210 84 -218 17 -231L13 -257L254 -247L259 -218L233 -216C183 -212 177 -202 189 -142L218 -1C238 -10 266 -12 283 -12C351 3 429 48 483 105C543 168 570 242 570 304ZM482 289C482 161 380 33 304 33C278 33 248 51 233 69L303 396C326 400 352 403 369 403C428 403 482 380 482 289Z" id="g113-113"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="593" vert-adv-y="593"></glyph.data></g></svg> values obtained when using <svg height="9.25202pt" id="M349" style="vertical-align:-3.29111pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -5.96091 10.584 9.25202" width="10.584pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M391 364C391 409 353 448 295 448C249 448 198 426 152 393C65 331 23 225 23 139C23 14 96 -12 146 -12C198 -12 280 9 367 101L351 124C300 78 242 48 194 48C129 48 109 107 109 162V191C208 213 391 266 391 364ZM313 350C313 305 268 261 113 223C132 334 187 381 217 398C227 404 244 405 261 405C290 405 313 385 313 350Z" id="g113-102"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="414" vert-adv-y="414"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,5.317,3.132)"><path d="M485 418C485 434 469 451 441 451C389 451 312 387 255 335C221 304 194 278 159 242H157L259 678C264 698 264 710 255 710C242 710 183 681 96 673L90 643L128 642C165 641 171 640 162 602L24 -5L31 -12C51 -4 81 4 110 9L145 181C154 195 180 220 205 242C233 170 263 106 291 53C318 1 335 -12 360 -12C383 -12 425 0 483 82L463 105C437 79 411 57 400 57C388 57 378 68 355 110C329 156 288 244 268 298C299 333 355 376 405 376C426 376 440 373 448 368C453 365 465 368 468 373C477 386 485 405 485 418Z" id="g50-108"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="509" vert-adv-y="509"></glyph.data></g></svg> as a predictor for various <svg height="14.1238pt" id="M350" style="vertical-align:-5.487901pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 34.3104 14.1238" width="34.3104pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M962 650H795L470 145L347 650H176L170 622C268 613 275 606 244 503L190 322C150 188 132 126 118 91C102 50 80 33 18 28L12 0H245L251 28C175 35 170 48 174 93C177 128 191 180 220 284L292 542H294C331 392 383 150 409 4H432L774 555H776L714 137C700 40 694 34 612 28L606 0H868L874 28C793 34 784 37 797 137L849 533C859 612 863 616 956 622L962 650Z" id="g113-78"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="985" 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163C116 191 123 215 129 233C190 316 290 392 330 392C348 392 365 372 365 316Z" id="g113-99"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="469" vert-adv-y="469"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,9.733,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z" id="g117-34"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="587" vert-adv-y="587"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,20.996,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z" id="g113-50"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="480" vert-adv-y="480"></glyph.data></g></svg> produced by <span class="monospace">etasim.f</span> of SASeis2006 [<a href="/journals/complexity/2017/6853892/#B106">104</a>]. In all cases, <svg height="11.9316pt" id="M352" style="vertical-align:-3.2957pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 61.8858 11.9316" width="61.8858pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M962 650H795L470 145L347 650H176L170 622C268 613 275 606 244 503L190 322C150 188 132 126 118 91C102 50 80 33 18 28L12 0H245L251 28C175 35 170 48 174 93C177 128 191 180 220 284L292 542H294C331 392 383 150 409 4H432L774 555H776L714 137C700 40 694 34 612 28L606 0H868L874 28C793 34 784 37 797 137L849 533C859 612 863 616 956 622L962 650Z" id="g113-78"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="985" vert-adv-y="985"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.22,3.132)"><path d="M303 37L293 66C280 59 256 49 231 49S173 63 173 143V396H281C294 404 298 428 287 439H173V575L158 577L92 509V439H46L17 408L22 396H92V107C92 27 128 -12 192 -12C203 -12 218 -9 237 2L303 37Z" id="g58-114"></path><glyph.data ascent="1007" descent="-369" horiz-adv-x="312" vert-adv-y="312"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,15.105,3.132)"><path d="M522 0V30C462 35 455 41 455 106V280C455 397 397 451 314 451C262 451 206 414 171 379V710C131 698 69 682 20 675V647C87 642 90 637 90 574V106C90 41 80 35 20 30V0H236V30C176 35 171 43 171 106V339C198 371 237 391 276 391C341 391 374 350 374 269V106C374 43 367 35 308 30V0H522Z" id="g58-102"></path><glyph.data ascent="1007" descent="-369" horiz-adv-x="544" vert-adv-y="544"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,20.055,3.132)"><path d="M185 344V453C137 433 92 421 41 413V386C100 378 104 375 104 310V106C104 41 97 35 33 30V0H268V30C190 35 185 41 185 107V283C206 340 240 371 267 371C282 371 296 364 310 351C316 344 325 343 336 348C357 357 369 378 369 399C369 424 345 451 310 451C262 451 219 397 187 344H185Z" id="g58-112"></path><glyph.data ascent="1007" descent="-369" horiz-adv-x="380" vert-adv-y="380"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,23.404,3.132)"><path d="M384 109C349 76 310 59 268 59C197 59 123 113 120 245C240 248 367 259 384 262C403 266 407 275 407 296C407 376 338 451 254 451H253C201 451 148 425 105 378C65 334 39 272 39 203C39 88 112 -12 235 -12C266 -12 339 5 402 84L384 109ZM230 411C285 411 319 365 319 313C319 298 313 293 294 293C236 291 180 290 125 290C141 370 185 411 230 411Z" id="g58-99"></path><glyph.data ascent="1007" descent="-369" horiz-adv-x="434" vert-adv-y="434"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,27.326,3.132)"><path d="M327 325C324 350 312 408 304 433C283 442 256 451 213 451C120 451 59 391 59 320C59 243 125 210 188 181C237 158 266 136 266 93C266 52 231 24 195 24C134 24 93 81 74 148L42 143C42 106 51 37 59 23C78 8 125 -12 177 -12C257 -12 345 35 345 127C345 198 292 234 216 264C171 283 131 305 131 348C131 387 156 416 195 416C243 416 277 378 297 317L327 325Z" id="g58-113"></path><glyph.data ascent="1007" descent="-369" horiz-adv-x="376" vert-adv-y="376"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,34.947,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z" id="g117-34"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="587" vert-adv-y="587"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,46.21,0)"><path d="M412 140C382 77 369 73 315 73H129L270 222C362 320 402 379 402 466C402 571 322 635 234 635C177 635 130 609 99 576L42 495L64 475C90 514 133 568 201 568C274 568 318 519 318 435C318 349 255 267 193 193C144 135 87 78 32 23V0H405C417 45 427 89 440 131L412 140Z" id="g113-51"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="480" vert-adv-y="480"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,52.45,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z" id="g113-47"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="228" vert-adv-y="228"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,55.414,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z" id="g113-49"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="480" vert-adv-y="480"></glyph.data></g></svg> has been used.</div>

Complexity

fig15

Figure 15

Figure 15: An Application of the Coherent Noise Model for the Prediction of Aftershock Magnitude Time Series 