An Application of the Coherent Noise Model for the Prediction of Aftershock Magnitude Time Series

<div>Results obtained when considering as target period the [1 day, 1 month] time-interval after the mainshock and time varying threshold <svg height="12.584pt" id="M375" style="vertical-align:-3.29567pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 70.211 12.584" width="70.211pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M962 650H795L470 145L347 650H176L170 622C268 613 275 606 244 503L190 322C150 188 132 126 118 91C102 50 80 33 18 28L12 0H245L251 28C175 35 170 48 174 93C177 128 191 180 220 284L292 542H294C331 392 383 150 409 4H432L774 555H776L714 137C700 40 694 34 612 28L606 0H868L874 28C793 34 784 37 797 137L849 533C859 612 863 616 956 622L962 650Z" id="g113-78"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="985" vert-adv-y="985"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.22,3.132)"><path d="M303 37L293 66C280 59 256 49 231 49S173 63 173 143V396H281C294 404 298 428 287 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Panel (a) depicts AUC versus <svg height="14.1238pt" id="M376" style="vertical-align:-5.487901pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 34.3104 14.1238" width="34.3104pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M962 650H795L470 145L347 650H176L170 622C268 613 275 606 244 503L190 322C150 188 132 126 118 91C102 50 80 33 18 28L12 0H245L251 28C175 35 170 48 174 93C177 128 191 180 220 284L292 542H294C331 392 383 150 409 4H432L774 555H776L714 137C700 40 694 34 612 28L606 0H868L874 28C793 34 784 37 797 137L849 533C859 612 863 616 956 622L962 650Z" id="g113-78"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="985" vert-adv-y="985"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.22,3.132)"><path d="M303 37L293 66C280 59 256 49 231 49S173 63 173 143V396H281C294 404 298 428 287 439H173V575L158 577L92 509V439H46L17 408L22 396H92V107C92 27 128 -12 192 -12C203 -12 218 -9 237 2L303 37Z" id="g58-114"></path><glyph.data ascent="1007" descent="-369" horiz-adv-x="312" vert-adv-y="312"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,15.114,3.132)"><path d="M442 39L431 68C420 63 406 57 394 57C377 57 359 71 359 118V301C359 353 349 393 314 424C291 443 261 451 230 451C171 438 107 401 79 381C59 366 46 355 46 340C46 316 72 295 91 295C106 295 117 303 122 319C131 350 139 371 152 384C163 397 178 404 197 404C246 404 281 365 281 293V278C260 262 186 232 124 213C69 194 41 161 41 112C41 47 92 -12 163 -12C195 -12 243 25 283 51C288 35 293 22 308 7C319 -4 339 -12 354 -12L442 39ZM281 87C262 68 226 51 199 51C169 51 129 74 129 126C129 162 151 181 190 198C211 208 259 229 281 240V87Z" id="g58-95"></path><glyph.data ascent="1007" descent="-369" horiz-adv-x="449" vert-adv-y="449"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,19.118,3.132)"><path d="M185 344V453C137 433 92 421 41 413V386C100 378 104 375 104 310V106C104 41 97 35 33 30V0H268V30C190 35 185 41 185 107V283C206 340 240 371 267 371C282 371 296 364 310 351C316 344 325 343 336 348C357 357 369 378 369 399C369 424 345 451 310 451C262 451 219 397 187 344H185Z" id="g58-112"></path><glyph.data ascent="1007" descent="-369" horiz-adv-x="380" vert-adv-y="380"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,22.503,3.132)"><path d="M472 439C432 432 382 428 334 425C303 442 271 451 236 451H235C158 451 54 398 54 285C54 216 97 171 140 152C124 133 93 105 53 90C52 81 55 63 64 48C77 27 102 5 137 -6C115 -22 77 -53 57 -73C40 -88 32 -107 32 -130C32 -189 96 -253 208 -253C340 -253 461 -159 461 -56C461 44 378 63 314 63C281 63 246 62 207 62C163 62 145 80 145 99C145 114 160 130 175 141C191 138 210 136 226 136C314 136 405 188 405 294C405 329 393 359 376 382L433 378C448 387 469 415 477 430L472 439ZM226 417C282 417 320 364 320 288S281 172 236 171C180 171 142 224 142 300S182 417 226 417ZM248 -9C291 -9 319 -11 346 -22S390 -57 390 -90C390 -151 339 -199 246 -199C171 -199 114 -159 114 -106C114 -79 132 -53 159 -30C178 -15 200 -9 248 -9Z" id="g58-101"></path><glyph.data ascent="1007" descent="-369" horiz-adv-x="479" vert-adv-y="479"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,26.798,3.132)"><path d="M384 109C349 76 310 59 268 59C197 59 123 113 120 245C240 248 367 259 384 262C403 266 407 275 407 296C407 376 338 451 254 451H253C201 451 148 425 105 378C65 334 39 272 39 203C39 88 112 -12 235 -12C266 -12 339 5 402 84L384 109ZM230 411C285 411 319 365 319 313C319 298 313 293 294 293C236 291 180 290 125 290C141 370 185 411 230 411Z" id="g58-99"></path><glyph.data ascent="1007" descent="-369" horiz-adv-x="434" vert-adv-y="434"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,30.747,3.132)"><path d="M303 37L293 66C280 59 256 49 231 49S173 63 173 143V396H281C294 404 298 428 287 439H173V575L158 577L92 509V439H46L17 408L22 396H92V107C92 27 128 -12 192 -12C203 -12 218 -9 237 2L303 37Z" id="g58-114"></path><glyph.data ascent="1007" descent="-369" horiz-adv-x="312" vert-adv-y="312"></glyph.data></g></svg> while (b) the corresponding <svg height="10.2124pt" id="M377" style="vertical-align:-3.42943pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -6.78297 7.83752 10.2124" width="7.83752pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M570 304C570 398 525 448 414 448C385 448 343 445 312 434L329 511L321 518C297 504 262 482 244 460L233 411C195 397 159 381 128 358L135 332C160 347 189 360 224 373L111 -147C97 -210 84 -218 17 -231L13 -257L254 -247L259 -218L233 -216C183 -212 177 -202 189 -142L218 -1C238 -10 266 -12 283 -12C351 3 429 48 483 105C543 168 570 242 570 304ZM482 289C482 161 380 33 304 33C278 33 248 51 233 69L303 396C326 400 352 403 369 403C428 403 482 380 482 289Z" id="g113-113"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="593" vert-adv-y="593"></glyph.data></g></svg> values.</div>

Complexity

fig18

Figure 18

Figure 18: An Application of the Coherent Noise Model for the Prediction of Aftershock Magnitude Time Series 