Predictability of Extreme Waves in the Lorenz-96 Model Near Intermittency and Quasi-Periodicity

<div>The period and spatial wave number of the traveling wave born at the first Hopf bifurcation of the Lorenz-96 model as a function of the dimension <span class="nowrap"><svg height="6.1673pt" id="M85" style="vertical-align:-0.2063904pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -5.96091 6.6501 6.1673" width="6.6501pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M495 86L479 114C446 82 419 66 409 66C401 66 401 72 406 97C420 166 436 231 453 297C489 435 454 448 428 448C406 448 384 439 354 422C305 394 222 327 161 247H159L183 345C200 415 194 448 173 448C143 448 82 410 23 351L38 325C64 349 95 371 105 371C111 371 116 365 109 336L25 -4L31 -12C50 -4 77 3 107 9C119 69 132 122 145 168C197 254 321 381 370 381C387 381 393 374 378 305L329 95C309 17 320 -12 345 -12C372 -12 430 19 495 86Z" id="g113-111"></path></g></svg>.</span> Note that the period tends to a finite number as <span class="nowrap"><svg height="6.42827pt" id="M86" style="vertical-align:-0.2063899pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -6.22188 39.6721 6.42827" width="39.6721pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M495 86L479 114C446 82 419 66 409 66C401 66 401 72 406 97C420 166 436 231 453 297C489 435 454 448 428 448C406 448 384 439 354 422C305 394 222 327 161 247H159L183 345C200 415 194 448 173 448C143 448 82 410 23 351L38 325C64 349 95 371 105 371C111 371 116 365 109 336L25 -4L31 -12C50 -4 77 3 107 9C119 69 132 122 145 168C197 254 321 381 370 381C387 381 393 374 378 305L329 95C309 17 320 -12 345 -12C372 -12 430 19 495 86Z" id="g113-111"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,10.158,0)"><path d="M901 255C861 290 790 361 716 442L694 427L796 280H69V230H796L694 83L716 68C790 149 861 220 901 255Z" id="g117-148"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,26.192,0)"><path d="M983 225C983 348 891 448 766 448C646 448 579 377 521 276C458 383 382 448 256 448C165 448 37 373 37 208C37 98 119 -12 256 -12C375 -12 440 60 498 161C561 53 639 -12 766 -12C865 -12 983 64 983 225ZM478 196C428 106 365 21 266 21C183 21 129 114 129 240C129 353 183 415 244 415C352 415 420 301 478 196ZM889 204C889 66 838 21 776 21C666 21 598 135 540 241C590 331 655 415 754 415C842 415 889 320 889 204Z" id="g113-30"></path></g></svg>,</span> but the wave number is monotonically increasing.</div>

Complexity

fig1

Figure 1

Figure 1: Predictability of Extreme Waves in the Lorenz-96 Model Near Intermittency and Quasi-Periodicity 