Predictability of Extreme Waves in the Lorenz-96 Model Near Intermittency and Quasi-Periodicity

<div>A quasi-periodic attractor of the Lorenz-96 model for <svg height="8.32035pt" id="M214" style="vertical-align:-0.2063999pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.11395 27.8368 8.32035" width="27.8368pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M495 86L479 114C446 82 419 66 409 66C401 66 401 72 406 97C420 166 436 231 453 297C489 435 454 448 428 448C406 448 384 439 354 422C305 394 222 327 161 247H159L183 345C200 415 194 448 173 448C143 448 82 410 23 351L38 325C64 349 95 371 105 371C111 371 116 365 109 336L25 -4L31 -12C50 -4 77 3 107 9C119 69 132 122 145 168C197 254 321 381 370 381C387 381 393 374 378 305L329 95C309 17 320 -12 345 -12C372 -12 430 19 495 86Z" id="g113-111"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,10.158,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z" id="g117-34"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,21.421,0)"><path d="M447 623H65C61 580 56 530 47 475H76C100 541 106 550 172 550H388C308 376 196 170 91 -1L98 -12L172 -2C268 204 360 408 455 611L447 623Z" id="g113-56"></path></g></svg> and <svg height="8.8423pt" id="M215" style="vertical-align:-0.2064009pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 38.4454 8.8423" width="38.4454pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M584 650H137L131 622C214 614 217 612 200 521L125 127C109 41 101 35 23 28L17 0H288L294 28C201 35 193 42 209 128L242 309H348C440 309 442 300 443 226H471L510 422H482C452 354 449 348 357 348H251L295 575C302 609 304 615 338 615H426C502 615 517 604 526 581C534 560 536 524 537 492L565 494C574 554 583 631 584 650Z" id="g113-71"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,11.527,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z" id="g117-34"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,22.79,0)"><path d="M456 178V225H360V632H320C217 496 115 347 20 206V178H280V106C280 40 276 34 189 27V0H445V27C364 34 360 39 360 106V178H456ZM280 225H82C149 335 214 431 278 520H280V225Z" id="g113-53"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,29.03,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z" id="g113-47"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,31.994,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z" id="g113-49"></path></g></svg> (a) and a chaotic attractor for <svg height="8.8423pt" id="M216" style="vertical-align:-0.2064009pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 38.4454 8.8423" width="38.4454pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M584 650H137L131 622C214 614 217 612 200 521L125 127C109 41 101 35 23 28L17 0H288L294 28C201 35 193 42 209 128L242 309H348C440 309 442 300 443 226H471L510 422H482C452 354 449 348 357 348H251L295 575C302 609 304 615 338 615H426C502 615 517 604 526 581C534 560 536 524 537 492L565 494C574 554 583 631 584 650Z" id="g113-71"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,11.527,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z" id="g117-34"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,22.79,0)"><path d="M456 178V225H360V632H320C217 496 115 347 20 206V178H280V106C280 40 276 34 189 27V0H445V27C364 34 360 39 360 106V178H456ZM280 225H82C149 335 214 431 278 520H280V225Z" id="g113-53"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,29.03,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z" id="g113-47"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,31.994,0)"><path d="M456 178V225H360V632H320C217 496 115 347 20 206V178H280V106C280 40 276 34 189 27V0H445V27C364 34 360 39 360 106V178H456ZM280 225H82C149 335 214 431 278 520H280V225Z" id="g113-53"></path></g></svg> (b) plotted in the Poincaré section <span class="nowrap"><svg height="11.5303pt" id="M217" style="vertical-align:-3.18148pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.34882 42.7003 11.5303" width="42.7003pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M536 404C536 423 520 448 491 448C445 448 398 404 308 283L286 338C255 416 242 448 217 448C182 448 138 402 92 341L111 321C149 368 169 378 178 378C188 378 198 363 214 320L254 212C185 117 138 65 107 65C98 65 85 69 82 75C79 82 73 86 65 86C44 86 23 60 23 39C23 7 44 -12 71 -12C119 -12 168 33 265 177L306 61C321 17 347 -12 373 -12C413 -12 465 33 507 96L491 119C459 84 432 60 413 60C395 60 378 92 358 148L321 250C341 279 369 310 389 332C417 363 439 382 456 382C466 382 475 376 481 368C486 361 492 358 496 358C513 358 536 381 536 404Z" id="g113-121"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,7.202,3.132)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z" id="g50-50"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,15.78,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z" id="g117-34"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,27.043,0)"><path d="M412 140C382 77 369 73 315 73H129L270 222C362 320 402 379 402 466C402 571 322 635 234 635C177 635 130 609 99 576L42 495L64 475C90 514 133 568 201 568C274 568 318 519 318 435C318 349 255 267 193 193C144 135 87 78 32 23V0H405C417 45 427 89 440 131L412 140Z" id="g113-51"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,33.283,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z" id="g113-47"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,36.247,0)"><path d="M153 550H386L412 615L406 623H120L82 318C104 327 142 338 184 338C294 338 347 275 347 187C347 112 305 39 221 39C160 39 119 71 97 89C88 97 80 96 71 90C59 80 50 67 49 57C48 45 52 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Complexity

fig11

Figure 11

Figure 11: Predictability of Extreme Waves in the Lorenz-96 Model Near Intermittency and Quasi-Periodicity 