Predictability of Extreme Waves in the Lorenz-96 Model Near Intermittency and Quasi-Periodicity

<div>Bifurcation diagrams of attractors in the Lorenz-96 model for <span class="nowrap"><svg height="8.55521pt" id="M119" style="vertical-align:-0.2063904pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.34882 27.8368 8.55521" width="27.8368pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M495 86L479 114C446 82 419 66 409 66C401 66 401 72 406 97C420 166 436 231 453 297C489 435 454 448 428 448C406 448 384 439 354 422C305 394 222 327 161 247H159L183 345C200 415 194 448 173 448C143 448 82 410 23 351L38 325C64 349 95 371 105 371C111 371 116 365 109 336L25 -4L31 -12C50 -4 77 3 107 9C119 69 132 122 145 168C197 254 321 381 370 381C387 381 393 374 378 305L329 95C309 17 320 -12 345 -12C372 -12 430 19 495 86Z" id="g113-111"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,10.158,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z" id="g117-34"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,21.421,0)"><path d="M456 178V225H360V632H320C217 496 115 347 20 206V178H280V106C280 40 276 34 189 27V0H445V27C364 34 360 39 360 106V178H456ZM280 225H82C149 335 214 431 278 520H280V225Z" id="g113-53"></path></g></svg>.</span> The three largest Lyapunov exponents are plotted as a function of the parameter <span class="nowrap"><svg height="8.68572pt" id="M120" style="vertical-align:-0.0498209pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 8.02022 8.68572" width="8.02022pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M584 650H137L131 622C214 614 217 612 200 521L125 127C109 41 101 35 23 28L17 0H288L294 28C201 35 193 42 209 128L242 309H348C440 309 442 300 443 226H471L510 422H482C452 354 449 348 357 348H251L295 575C302 609 304 615 338 615H426C502 615 517 604 526 581C534 560 536 524 537 492L565 494C574 554 583 631 584 650Z" id="g113-71"></path></g></svg>.</span> At <svg height="8.8423pt" id="M121" style="vertical-align:-0.2064009pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 63.499 8.8423" width="63.499pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M584 650H137L131 622C214 614 217 612 200 521L125 127C109 41 101 35 23 28L17 0H288L294 28C201 35 193 42 209 128L242 309H348C440 309 442 300 443 226H471L510 422H482C452 354 449 348 357 348H251L295 575C302 609 304 615 338 615H426C502 615 517 604 526 581C534 560 536 524 537 492L565 494C574 554 583 631 584 650Z" id="g113-71"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,11.527,0)"><path d="M537 353L508 390C487 357 455 333 417 333C389 333 344 353 309 370C265 391 212 414 172 414C122 414 79 382 50 340L81 307C101 339 134 364 172 364C198 364 245 343 280 326C324 305 375 283 417 283C466 283 507 314 537 353ZM537 168L508 205C487 172 455 148 417 148C389 148 344 168 309 185C265 206 212 229 172 229C122 229 79 197 50 155L81 122C101 154 134 179 172 179C198 179 245 158 280 141C324 120 375 98 417 98C466 98 507 129 537 168Z" id="g117-132"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,22.79,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z" id="g113-50"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,29.03,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z" id="g113-50"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,35.27,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z" id="g113-47"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,38.234,0)"><path d="M249 635C141 635 70 555 70 471C70 401 114 353 179 316C143 294 106 267 90 252C68 231 45 202 45 157C45 50 130 -12 237 -12C322 -12 435 52 435 169C435 256 372 304 303 343C349 374 375 398 383 407C401 429 411 458 411 487C411 569 344 635 249 635ZM238 603C285 603 337 567 337 482C337 422 310 385 276 358C205 393 145 426 145 500C145 552 179 603 238 603ZM248 20C183 20 125 70 125 163C125 218 158 268 206 300C284 261 355 217 355 143C355 66 308 20 248 20Z" id="g113-57"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,44.474,0)"><path d="M285 378C315 398 338 416 353 432C373 451 384 474 384 503C384 579 325 635 236 635H235C182 635 136 610 108 579L65 516L85 496C110 533 150 575 205 575C258 575 300 543 300 481C300 407 232 369 141 339L147 310C163 315 188 321 211 321C268 321 338 284 338 192C338 94 288 40 217 40C160 40 119 68 93 91C85 98 77 97 69 91C60 84 47 71 46 58C44 46 48 35 62 22C75 10 116 -12 162 -12C234 -12 424 62 424 224C424 297 373 359 285 376V378Z" id="g113-52"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,50.714,0)"><path d="M249 635C141 635 70 555 70 471C70 401 114 353 179 316C143 294 106 267 90 252C68 231 45 202 45 157C45 50 130 -12 237 -12C322 -12 435 52 435 169C435 256 372 304 303 343C349 374 375 398 383 407C401 429 411 458 411 487C411 569 344 635 249 635ZM238 603C285 603 337 567 337 482C337 422 310 385 276 358C205 393 145 426 145 500C145 552 179 603 238 603ZM248 20C183 20 125 70 125 163C125 218 158 268 206 300C284 261 355 217 355 143C355 66 308 20 248 20Z" id="g113-57"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,56.954,0)"><path d="M412 140C382 77 369 73 315 73H129L270 222C362 320 402 379 402 466C402 571 322 635 234 635C177 635 130 609 99 576L42 495L64 475C90 514 133 568 201 568C274 568 318 519 318 435C318 349 255 267 193 193C144 135 87 78 32 23V0H405C417 45 427 89 440 131L412 140Z" id="g113-51"></path></g></svg> a periodic attractor disappears through a saddle-node bifurcation and a chaotic attractor is detected (see the magnification in (b)).</div>

Complexity

fig3

Figure 3

Figure 3: Predictability of Extreme Waves in the Lorenz-96 Model Near Intermittency and Quasi-Periodicity 