Predictability of Extreme Waves in the Lorenz-96 Model Near Intermittency and Quasi-Periodicity

Figure 6

Box plots of distributions of singular values plotted as a function of the prediction lead time for and . The black box plots represent the unconditional distribution (4). The colored box plots represent the conditional distribution (5) for the event where the threshold is chosen as the 95th, 97th, or 99th percentile. (b) shows initial conditions (red points) on the attractor for which the event takes place at time where is the 99th percentile.

(a)

(b)