Paths to Polarization: How Extreme Views, Miscommunication, and Random Chance Drive Opinion Dynamics

<div>Exemplar spatiotemporal dynamics of agent opinion coordinates with <svg height="8.68572pt" id="M135" style="vertical-align:-0.0498209pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 31.1382 8.68572" width="31.1382pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M743 650H503L496 622L527 618C563 613 564 603 532 573C449 495 371 431 323 392C301 374 272 355 246 346L280 522C297 609 300 614 379 622L385 650H135L129 622C209 614 215 609 198 522L124 133C106 39 99 35 23 28L17 0H271L277 28C193 35 192 39 208 133L239 316C264 328 280 325 303 288C368 183 435 90 502 0H652L659 28C602 34 584 43 543 94C495 154 403 283 347 369L574 554C634 603 659 612 735 624L743 650Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,13.449,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,24.712,0)"><path d="M412 140C382 77 369 73 315 73H129L270 222C362 320 402 379 402 466C402 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transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,88.844,0)"><path d="M283 255V284C195 290 192 337 192 375C192 436 200 508 200 580C200 696 116 709 54 709V681C127 671 139 634 139 588C138 524 125 452 125 387C125 333 149 286 209 272V268C148 253 125 206 125 151C126 87 139 16 139 -47C139 -92 127 -131 54 -141V-169C115 -169 200 -152 200 -41C200 32 192 104 192 164C192 202 195 249 283 255Z"></path></g></svg>.</span> Before the random long-range ties are added at <span class="nowrap"><svg height="8.55521pt" id="M138" style="vertical-align:-0.2063904pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.34882 44.5262 8.55521" width="44.5262pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M324 430H196L233 583L223 592L145 529L120 430H54L29 396L31 388H111L56 126C33 15 54 -12 77 -12C137 -12 214 57 250 95L233 119C208 92 155 59 138 59C126 59 120 70 131 125L186 390L298 394L324 430Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,8.065,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,19.328,0)"><path d="M412 140C382 77 369 73 315 73H129L270 222C362 320 402 379 402 466C402 571 322 635 234 635C177 635 130 609 99 576L42 495L64 475C90 514 133 568 201 568C274 568 318 519 318 435C318 349 255 267 193 193C144 135 87 78 32 23V0H405C417 45 427 89 440 131L412 140Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,25.568,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,31.808,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,38.048,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g></svg>,</span> extremists pull centrists to the extremes, but more centrist agent caves are balanced between more extreme caves. When long-range ties are added, the balance is broken and agents proceed to move to one of the extremes. Because at least some extremists held each of the corners, centrist agents do not move only to polar opposite corners, but in many cases to the nearest corner contained a neighboring (in the network sense) agent.</div>

Complexity

fig15

Figure 15

Figure 15: Paths to Polarization: How Extreme Views, Miscommunication, and Random Chance Drive Opinion Dynamics 