Information Feedback in Temporal Networks as a Predictor of Market Crashes

<div>Number of links (shown in dark blue, scale on the left axis), and the number of feedback pairs (light blue, left axis) as a percentage of total possible links/pairs, and the average link weight (black, right axis) for the causality networks estimated from the U.S. stock market data on a rolling time window of <svg height="9.01194pt" id="M166" style="vertical-align:-0.04981995pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.96212 29.5984 9.01194" width="29.5984pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M620 675H597C578 656 570 650 541 650H144C112 650 104 653 94 675H72C59 618 42 552 23 493L53 491C71 534 88 564 105 585C124 608 144 615 238 615H290L197 121C182 40 174 34 88 28L82 0H361L367 28C275 34 266 38 281 121L374 615H441C522 615 543 608 553 583C562 560 566 531 565 493L597 494C603 551 612 629 620 675Z" id="g113-85"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,11.917,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z" id="g117-34"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,23.18,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z" id="g113-50"></path></g></svg> year.</div>

Complexity

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Figure 5

Figure 5: Information Feedback in Temporal Networks as a Predictor of Market Crashes 