Simulation Study on Clustering Approaches for Short-Term Electricity Forecasting

Table 7

Forecasting results in terms of MAPE error for grouped households using the test set.

Partition number	Autocorrelation-based distance					Partition number	Fourier coefficients-based distance
	KNN	RPART	RF	NNET	SVR		KNN	RPART	RF	NNET	SVR
1	21.45	20.04	19.28	17.20	17.19	1	21.10	20.08	19.36	18.01	16.88
2	22.52	20.83	19.77	16.6	17.22	2	22.23	21.70	19.50	17.32	17.02
3	23.39	21.05	19.73	17.24	17.10	3	22.46	21.93	19.16	17.01	16.86
4	24.51	21.85	19.77	17.14	16.88	4	22.48	21.88	19.19	16.88	16.79
5	26.00	22.66	19.95	16.90	16.70	5	23.54	22.78	19.28	17.41	16.39
6	26.50	22.32	19.44	16.4	16.64	6	23.99	21.98	19.28	16.6	16.56
7	27.26	22.09	19.28	16.0	16.51	7	25.53	22.23	19.18	16.94	16.71
8	28.68	21.96	19.13	16.2	16.55	8	25.72	22.49	19.00	17.33	16.63
Partition number	Distance based on cross-correlation					Partition number	Periodogram-based distance
	KNN	RPART	RF	NNET	SVR		KNN	RPART	RF	NNET	SVR
1	21.19	20.24	19.74	17.20	16.88	1	20.94	20.87	19.47	17.61	17.42
2	21.45	20.43	19.52	17.58	17.02	2	22.34	21.23	19.59	16.75	16.81
3	21.78	20.64	19.24	17.32	17.06	3	23.30	21.62	19.37	17.11	16.81
4	21.64	20.77	19.19	16.99	16.90	4	24.08	20.61	19.15	17.09	16.74
5	21.73	20.56	19.26	15.6	16.84	5	25.50	21.22	19.48	16.5	16.3
6	22.21	21.00	18.90	16.3	16.92	6	27.19	21.90	19.57	16.86	16.1
7	22.51	20.30	19.21	16.99	16.90	7	27.53	21.69	19.46		16.0
8	22.48	20.42	19.15	15.5	16.87	8	27.73	21.81	19.60	17.31	16.0
Partition number	DTW distance					Partition number	LCSS distance
	KNN	RPART	RF	NNET	SVR		KNN	RPART	RF	NNET	SVR
1	21.10	20.08	19.36	18.01	16.88	1	20.92	21.09	19.18	19.35	17.57
2	22.23	21.70	19.50	17.32	17.02	2	21.19	21.17	19.08	17.24	17.45
3	23.34	21.58	19.44	16.5	17.06	3	22.79	22.36	18.91	16.81	17.07
4	23.57	21.85	19.44	16.2	16.90	4	23.44	21.04	19.06	17.31	16.95
5	23.59	21.82	19.44	17.36	16.84	5	24.26	20.99	19.18		16.72
6	24.88	22.66	19.30	16.84	16.92	6	25.09	21.07	19.08	16.5	16.66
7	24.95	22.51	19.28	17.27	16.90	7	26.38	20.70	19.15	16.4	16.47
8	26.68	22.78	19.14	16.4	16.87	8	27.06	20.61	19.32	16.3	16.41
Partition number	EDR					Partition number	STS distance
	KNN	RPART	RF	NNET	SVR		KNN	RPART	RF	NNET	SVR
1	20.85	21.00	19.06	16.95	17.30	1	20.92	21.52	19.44	17.24	17.49
2	22.15	21.02	18.7	17.31	17.29	2	21.32	21.62	19.22	16.90	17.17
3	23.39	21.08	18.96	16.5	16.94	3	21.80	21.06	18.81	16.92	17.00
4	24.26	21.31	18.99	15.9	16.78	4	22.15	22.77	18.99	17.17	17.05
5	24.67	21.51	18.98	16.5	16.71	5	22.10	22.30	18.88	17.01	17.18
6	25.95	21.99	18.6		16.77	6	22.41	21.78	18.92	16.7	16.83
7	25.92	21.77	18.5	16.5	16.76	7	22.44	21.80	18.79	16.5	16.79
8	27.86	22.02	19.01	16.83	16.68	8	23.12	21.41	18.85	16.2	16.73
Partition number	distance					Partition number	TQuest distance
	KNN	RPART	RF	NNET	SVR		KNN	RPART	RF	NNET	SVR
1	21.10	20.08	19.36	18.01	16.88	1	21.08	20.15	19.27	17.29	16.99
2	22.23	21.70	19.50	17.32	17.02	2	21.48	19.78	18.88	16.3	16.54
3	22.46	21.93	19.16	17.01	16.86	3	21.70	20.01	19.09	16.5	16.41
4	22.48	21.88	19.19	16.88	16.79	4	21.88	20.04	18.86	16.4	16.3
5	23.74	22.43	19.26	17.03	16.34	5	22.55	20.84	18.85	17.44	16.35
6	24.35	22.03	19.23	16.0	16.50	6	23.02	21.60	18.5	15.7	16.60
7	24.59	22.61	19.32	16.3	16.56	7	23.09	21.65	18.6	16.0	16.55
8	26.33	22.41	19.05	15.8	16.61	8	23.19	21.69	18.4	16.0	16.47