On the Dynamical Complexity of a Seasonally Forced Discrete SIR Epidemic Model with a Constant Vaccination Strategy

<div>3D graph of the maximal Lyapunov exponent, with <svg height="9.46863pt" id="M275" style="vertical-align:-1.11981pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.34882 75.8517 9.46863" width="75.8517pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,9.872,0)"><path d="M512 -3V55L134 254V256L512 456V514L75 281V230L512 -3Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,21.135,0)"><path d="M387 375C387 402 357 448 257 448C172 448 82 404 82 326C82 289 108 255 156 241V239C85 223 23 181 23 116C23 39 89 -12 182 -12C265 -12 336 31 378 91L361 114C320 73 269 47 216 47C157 47 115 82 115 137C115 191 160 219 218 219C243 219 262 218 272 217L304 259L302 266C295 265 281 264 255 264C195 264 163 294 163 335C163 377 200 416 249 416C293 416 321 389 329 342C331 332 335 329 341 329C355 329 387 352 387 375Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,30.098,0)"><path d="M531 71V127L115 310L531 494V550L57 335V285L531 71ZM531 -40V10H57V-40H531Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,41.361,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,47.601,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,50.565,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,56.805,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,63.045,0)"><path d="M447 623H65C61 580 56 530 47 475H76C100 541 106 550 172 550H388C308 376 196 170 91 -1L98 -12L172 -2C268 204 360 408 455 611L447 623Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,69.287,0)"><path d="M153 550H386L412 615L406 623H120L82 318C104 327 142 338 184 338C294 338 347 275 347 187C347 112 305 39 221 39C160 39 119 71 97 89C88 97 80 96 71 90C59 80 50 67 49 57C48 45 52 36 66 23C80 9 123 -12 169 -12C221 -11 288 15 342 59C403 109 431 165 431 225C431 308 366 395 238 395C212 395 165 379 127 364L153 550Z"></path></g></svg> and <span class="nowrap"><svg height="10.4081pt" id="M276" style="vertical-align:-1.11977pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 73.9466 10.4081" width="73.9466pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M412 140C382 77 369 73 315 73H129L270 222C362 320 402 379 402 466C402 571 322 635 234 635C177 635 130 609 99 576L42 495L64 475C90 514 133 568 201 568C274 568 318 519 318 435C318 349 255 267 193 193C144 135 87 78 32 23V0H405C417 45 427 89 440 131L412 140Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,6.24,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,9.204,0)"><path d="M244 635C114 635 38 519 38 422C38 317 111 240 217 240C236 240 255 244 277 256L345 292C311 140 203 39 59 15L64 -15C89 -15 150 -5 204 17C339 72 440 202 440 386C440 521 368 635 244 635ZM228 602C326 602 352 479 352 390C352 370 351 347 348 324C327 308 293 296 258 296C174 296 124 369 124 458C124 517 152 602 228 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,15.445,0)"><path d="M412 140C382 77 369 73 315 73H129L270 222C362 320 402 379 402 466C402 571 322 635 234 635C177 635 130 609 99 576L42 495L64 475C90 514 133 568 201 568C274 568 318 519 318 435C318 349 255 267 193 193C144 135 87 78 32 23V0H405C417 45 427 89 440 131L412 140Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,25.397,0)"><path d="M531 71V127L115 310L531 494V550L57 335V285L531 71ZM531 -40V10H57V-40H531Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,36.66,0)"><path d="M499 88L487 113C459 86 422 65 413 65C403 65 403 74 409 98L461 318C487 426 460 448 431 448C408 448 383 441 352 424C305 398 223 344 157 257H155L243 674C249 702 249 712 240 712C227 712 170 680 87 673L82 648H117C155 648 162 644 150 590L23 -4L30 -12C55 -4 81 3 105 8C113 53 131 150 143 187C199 281 323 387 372 387C390 387 393 369 380 311L328 86C313 19 319 -12 347 -12C379 -12 442 24 499 88Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,47,0)"><path d="M531 71V127L115 310L531 494V550L57 335V285L531 71ZM531 -40V10H57V-40H531Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,58.263,0)"><path d="M285 378C315 398 338 416 353 432C373 451 384 474 384 503C384 579 325 635 236 635H235C182 635 136 610 108 579L65 516L85 496C110 533 150 575 205 575C258 575 300 543 300 481C300 407 232 369 141 339L147 310C163 315 188 321 211 321C268 321 338 284 338 192C338 94 288 40 217 40C160 40 119 68 93 91C85 98 77 97 69 91C60 84 47 71 46 58C44 46 48 35 62 22C75 10 116 -12 162 -12C234 -12 424 62 424 224C424 297 373 359 285 376V378Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,64.503,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,67.467,0)"><path d="M456 178V225H360V632H320C217 496 115 347 20 206V178H280V106C280 40 276 34 189 27V0H445V27C364 34 360 39 360 106V178H456ZM280 225H82C149 335 214 431 278 520H280V225Z"></path></g></svg>.</span></div>

Complexity

fig5

Figure 5

Figure 5: On the Dynamical Complexity of a Seasonally Forced Discrete SIR Epidemic Model with a Constant Vaccination Strategy 