Analysis of the Earned Value Management and Earned Schedule Techniques in Complex Hydroelectric Power Production Projects: Cost and Time Forecast

Table 5

Accuracy probability rates in cost forecasts (EVM) and duration forecasts (ES) for the Santiago project.

Analysis period	Earned Value (EV)	Cost Accuracy Probability (%)	Duration Accuracy Probability (%)
months	millionsProb. 95%	range 2%  ± 26.8 million	range 5%  ± 1.7 months
5	299.00	23.00	23.20
10	685.70	28.30	31.80
15	1204.90	38.90	32.10
20	1613.90	43.20	36.10
25	1859.90	55.60	37.70
30	2055.70	72.00	40.10
35	2215.60	86.20	42.40
40	2356.20	96.20	45.30
45	2476.60	99.50	46.30
50	2528.90	100.00	47.30
55	2570.30	100.00	54.60
60	2607.10	100.00	61.80
65	2653.00	100.00	52.00
68	2678.00	100.00	52.10
Completion	2684.32	100.00	100.00