Analysis of the Earned Value Management and Earned Schedule Techniques in Complex Hydroelectric Power Production Projects: Cost and Time Forecast

Table 6

Accuracy probability rates in cost forecasts (EVM) and duration forecasts (ES) for the Cardenillo project.

Analysis period	Earned Value (EV)	Cost Accuracy Probability (%)	Duration Accuracy Probability (%)
months	millionsProb. 95%	range 2%  ± 9.4 million	range 5%  ± 1.9 months
5	17.05	17.80	21.90
10	32.76	21.30	34.80
15	46.94	22.00	35.40
20	169.70	55.60	37.80
25	291.60	72.80	44.80
30	417.60	76.80	52.20
35	558.50	87.70	57.90
40	677.00	94.90	59.60
45	784.50	98.70	60.30
50	860.70	99.60	64.70
55	896.50	100.00	58.40
60	914.40	100.00	62.00
65	928.06	100.00	60.00
70	939.17	100.00	59.00
75	943.00	100.00	95.60
Completion	944.00	100.00	100.00