Analysis of the Earned Value Management and Earned Schedule Techniques in Complex Hydroelectric Power Production Projects: Cost and Time Forecast

Table 8

Accuracy probability rates in cost forecasts (EVM) and duration forecasts (ES) for the Sopladora project.

Analysis period	Earned Value (EV)	Cost Accuracy Probability (%)	Duration Accuracy Probability (%)
months	millions  Prob. 95%	range 2%  ± 6.8 million	range 5%  ± 1.2 months
5	102.78	64.30	40.60
10	212.74	76.00	40.80
15	310.30	87.80	43.60
20	407.50	93.20	44.10
25	502.90	95.90	44.50
30	577.70	97.80	47.20
35	621.20	100.00	42.80
40	656.30	100.00	43.30
45	676.00	100.00	59.90
47	678.00	100.00	74.20
Completion	678.04	100.00	100.00