Mathematical Model Analysis and Simulation of Visceral Leishmaniasis, Kashgar, Xinjiang, 2004–2016

Table 1

Parameter values (and their sources).

Parameters	Value	Interpretation	Source
	0.019	Intrinsic growth rate of human	Calculated
	0.026	Intrinsic growth rate of vector	[19]
	0.296	Intrinsic growth rate of reserve	Assumption
	5000000	Human carrying capacity	Assumption
	7000000	Vector carrying capacity	Assumption
	100000	Reserve carrying capacity	Assumption
	1.35e − 08	Transmission probability from an infected sandfly to a susceptible human	Fitting
	3.565e − 17	Transmission probability from an infected human to a susceptible sand fly	Fitting
	3.515e − 05	Transmission probability from an infected reserve to a susceptible sandfly	Fitting
	1.23e − 05	Transmission probability from an infected sandfly to a susceptible reserve	Fitting
	0.0125	Natural mortality rate of human	[10]
	25.55	Natural mortality rate of vector	[11]
	0.1	Natural mortality rate of reserve	[12]
	0.33	Human incubation period	[13]
	4.015	VL-induced death rate of humans	[8]
	3.65	VL-induced death rate of reserve	[13]
	2.5	Recovery period of VL	[14]