An Anecdote of Investor Anxiety and Momentum in China

<div>Daily reversal ratios in various periods. In the figure, the daily reversal ratios are plotted for various testing formation and holding periods. The maximum formation and holding periods are 30 days each, allowing 900 cases to come into being. We calculate the percentage of stocks that reverse their past price trends in the future. The reversal ratio is <span class="nowrap"><svg height="11.5564pt" id="M1" style="vertical-align:-2.26807pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 114.25 11.5564" width="114.25pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,4.498,0)"><path d="M448 453H361L394 608H355L322 453H214L248 608H210L176 453H79L70 395H163L134 259H35L24 201H120L82 27H120L158 201H266L229 27H267L305 201H395L404 259H318L348 395H439L448 453ZM310 395L280 259H173L202 395H310Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,10.738,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,15.236,0)"><path d="M631 18C609 24 585 35 559 65C534 91 514 117 478 169C448 214 406 281 389 313C462 346 516 399 516 485C516 545 490 590 449 616C412 641 363 650 290 650H42V622C120 615 128 612 128 527V125C128 40 120 34 38 28V0H300V28C221 34 212 40 212 125V284H244C295 284 312 272 329 244C359 195 395 133 430 84C475 19 516 -3 592 -7C603 -8 615 -8 627 -8L631 18ZM212 316V563C212 591 215 602 223 607C231 613 248 617 277 617C352 617 423 577 423 469C423 415 407 375 368 345C343 324 310 316 260 316H212Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,23.309,0)"><path d="M517 162C503 123 484 88 467 68C445 42 417 34 341 34C291 34 256 34 237 47C219 59 213 81 213 128V317H308C395 317 402 311 415 240H444V431H415C403 364 398 356 307 356H213V584C213 613 215 616 246 616H322C394 616 421 609 435 587C448 566 458 544 467 502L496 506C493 557 488 625 488 650H42V622C120 616 128 612 128 523V125C128 43 120 35 29 28V0H511C520 31 540 125 546 158L517 162Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,30.536,0)"><path d="M687 650H462V622C543 612 549 605 530 547C498 447 422 252 372 126H370C302 298 229 492 204 563C188 607 191 615 262 622V650H17V622C77 616 93 608 122 534C180 389 262 172 329 -11H360C436 196 541 450 568 516C606 605 619 614 687 622V650Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,39.245,0)"><path d="M409 504C401 567 396 607 392 642C354 654 312 665 266 665C137 665 60 583 60 487C60 374 161 325 225 290C300 250 355 215 355 141C355 68 311 21 235 21C131 21 86 122 71 183L41 176C48 128 61 42 68 21C78 16 93 8 118 0C142 -7 175 -15 216 -15C349 -15 438 69 438 174C438 287 344 333 265 374C186 414 138 449 138 522C138 576 172 631 249 631C336 631 363 562 380 499L409 504Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,45.522,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,50.02,0)"><path d="M368 703H309L44 -163H104L368 703Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,55.381,0)"><path d="M448 453H361L394 608H355L322 453H214L248 608H210L176 453H79L70 395H163L134 259H35L24 201H120L82 27H120L158 201H266L229 27H267L305 201H395L404 259H318L348 395H439L448 453ZM310 395L280 259H173L202 395H310Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,61.621,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,66.119,0)"><path d="M861 0V28C774 35 771 41 768 147L759 509C756 612 762 614 851 622V650H681L449 149L221 650H57V622C148 613 153 609 144 479L130 271C123 166 117 123 111 88C104 46 85 34 26 28V0H259V28C192 35 169 42 167 90C166 130 166 173 170 256L185 541H187L411 7H431L675 555H679L683 147C683 41 680 35 598 28V0H861Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,77.585,0)"><path d="M381 665C170 665 44 498 44 318C44 125 188 -15 369 -15C552 -15 703 117 703 333C703 534 550 665 381 665ZM359 629C491 629 601 517 601 306C601 114 502 21 390 21C249 21 146 158 146 346S248 629 359 629Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,87.1,0)"><path d="M861 0V28C774 35 771 41 768 147L759 509C756 612 762 614 851 622V650H681L449 149L221 650H57V622C148 613 153 609 144 479L130 271C123 166 117 123 111 88C104 46 85 34 26 28V0H259V28C192 35 169 42 167 90C166 130 166 173 170 256L185 541H187L411 7H431L675 555H679L683 147C683 41 680 35 598 28V0H861Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,98.683,0)"><path d="M409 504C401 567 396 607 392 642C354 654 312 665 266 665C137 665 60 583 60 487C60 374 161 325 225 290C300 250 355 215 355 141C355 68 311 21 235 21C131 21 86 122 71 183L41 176C48 128 61 42 68 21C78 16 93 8 118 0C142 -7 175 -15 216 -15C349 -15 438 69 438 174C438 287 344 333 265 374C186 414 138 449 138 522C138 576 172 631 249 631C336 631 363 562 380 499L409 504Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,104.991,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,109.489,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z"></path></g></svg>,</span> where <svg height="11.5564pt" id="M2" style="vertical-align:-2.26807pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 45.6789 11.5564" width="45.6789pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M448 453H361L394 608H355L322 453H214L248 608H210L176 453H79L70 395H163L134 259H35L24 201H120L82 27H120L158 201H266L229 27H267L305 201H395L404 259H318L348 395H439L448 453ZM310 395L280 259H173L202 395H310Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,6.24,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,10.738,0)"><path d="M631 18C609 24 585 35 559 65C534 91 514 117 478 169C448 214 406 281 389 313C462 346 516 399 516 485C516 545 490 590 449 616C412 641 363 650 290 650H42V622C120 615 128 612 128 527V125C128 40 120 34 38 28V0H300V28C221 34 212 40 212 125V284H244C295 284 312 272 329 244C359 195 395 133 430 84C475 19 516 -3 592 -7C603 -8 615 -8 627 -8L631 18ZM212 316V563C212 591 215 602 223 607C231 613 248 617 277 617C352 617 423 577 423 469C423 415 407 375 368 345C343 324 310 316 260 316H212Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,18.811,0)"><path d="M517 162C503 123 484 88 467 68C445 42 417 34 341 34C291 34 256 34 237 47C219 59 213 81 213 128V317H308C395 317 402 311 415 240H444V431H415C403 364 398 356 307 356H213V584C213 613 215 616 246 616H322C394 616 421 609 435 587C448 566 458 544 467 502L496 506C493 557 488 625 488 650H42V622C120 616 128 612 128 523V125C128 43 120 35 29 28V0H511C520 31 540 125 546 158L517 162Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,26.038,0)"><path d="M687 650H462V622C543 612 549 605 530 547C498 447 422 252 372 126H370C302 298 229 492 204 563C188 607 191 615 262 622V650H17V622C77 616 93 608 122 534C180 389 262 172 329 -11H360C436 196 541 450 568 516C606 605 619 614 687 622V650Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,34.747,0)"><path d="M409 504C401 567 396 607 392 642C354 654 312 665 266 665C137 665 60 583 60 487C60 374 161 325 225 290C300 250 355 215 355 141C355 68 311 21 235 21C131 21 86 122 71 183L41 176C48 128 61 42 68 21C78 16 93 8 118 0C142 -7 175 -15 216 -15C349 -15 438 69 438 174C438 287 344 333 265 374C186 414 138 449 138 522C138 576 172 631 249 631C336 631 363 562 380 499L409 504Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,41.024,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z"></path></g></svg> denotes the number of stocks reversing their prices and <svg height="11.5564pt" id="M3" style="vertical-align:-2.26807pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 54.265 11.5564" width="54.265pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M448 453H361L394 608H355L322 453H214L248 608H210L176 453H79L70 395H163L134 259H35L24 201H120L82 27H120L158 201H266L229 27H267L305 201H395L404 259H318L348 395H439L448 453ZM310 395L280 259H173L202 395H310Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,6.24,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,10.738,0)"><path d="M861 0V28C774 35 771 41 768 147L759 509C756 612 762 614 851 622V650H681L449 149L221 650H57V622C148 613 153 609 144 479L130 271C123 166 117 123 111 88C104 46 85 34 26 28V0H259V28C192 35 169 42 167 90C166 130 166 173 170 256L185 541H187L411 7H431L675 555H679L683 147C683 41 680 35 598 28V0H861Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,22.204,0)"><path d="M381 665C170 665 44 498 44 318C44 125 188 -15 369 -15C552 -15 703 117 703 333C703 534 550 665 381 665ZM359 629C491 629 601 517 601 306C601 114 502 21 390 21C249 21 146 158 146 346S248 629 359 629Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,31.719,0)"><path d="M861 0V28C774 35 771 41 768 147L759 509C756 612 762 614 851 622V650H681L449 149L221 650H57V622C148 613 153 609 144 479L130 271C123 166 117 123 111 88C104 46 85 34 26 28V0H259V28C192 35 169 42 167 90C166 130 166 173 170 256L185 541H187L411 7H431L675 555H679L683 147C683 41 680 35 598 28V0H861Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,43.302,0)"><path d="M409 504C401 567 396 607 392 642C354 654 312 665 266 665C137 665 60 583 60 487C60 374 161 325 225 290C300 250 355 215 355 141C355 68 311 21 235 21C131 21 86 122 71 183L41 176C48 128 61 42 68 21C78 16 93 8 118 0C142 -7 175 -15 216 -15C349 -15 438 69 438 174C438 287 344 333 265 374C186 414 138 449 138 522C138 576 172 631 249 631C336 631 363 562 380 499L409 504Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,49.61,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z"></path></g></svg> is the total number of stocks within a momentum portfolio.</div>

Complexity

An Anecdote of Investor Anxiety and Momentum in China

Figure 1