Risk Propagation Model and Simulation of Schedule Change in Construction Projects: A Complex Network Approach

<div>Effects of <span class="nowrap"><svg height="12.7178pt" id="M181" style="vertical-align:-3.42947pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 13.5434 12.7178" width="13.5434pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M558 587C558 666 497 712 432 712C379 712 330 691 284 650C212 586 178 508 148 348L71 -65C49 -185 35 -229 23 -235L27 -261C49 -259 101 -251 124 -224C131 -216 138 -178 159 -24C171 66 197 200 227 356C264 550 295 668 393 668C443 668 479 632 479 575C479 516 446 458 383 418C361 404 344 398 318 397L296 350C395 338 460 281 460 192C460 110 411 40 300 40C258 40 215 55 192 69L181 51C191 18 222 -16 266 -16C308 -16 351 1 397 26C471 67 545 142 545 221C545 315 486 365 401 395C469 437 558 498 558 587Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,7.228,3.132)"><path d="M615 650H141L132 618C223 612 227 607 212 526L136 123C122 42 112 38 27 32L18 0H522C539 33 580 135 592 166L558 179C536 139 512 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67 545 142 545 221C545 315 486 365 401 395C469 437 558 498 558 587Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,7.228,3.132)"><path d="M771 650H519L511 619L537 615C578 610 579 600 539 564C444 476 379 428 336 396C312 378 281 357 252 347L283 514C300 605 304 610 388 619L395 650H134L127 619C212 610 216 605 199 514L130 140C112 41 103 38 28 31L18 0H281L288 31C201 40 198 41 216 140L246 311C274 328 289 324 315 284C393 167 458 86 528 0H686L695 31C635 37 612 45 570 97C521 156 420 285 361 367L596 549C663 601 684 609 764 620L771 650Z"></path></g></svg>,</span> <span class="nowrap"><svg height="12.7178pt" id="M183" style="vertical-align:-3.42947pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 12.219 12.7178" width="12.219pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M558 587C558 666 497 712 432 712C379 712 330 691 284 650C212 586 178 508 148 348L71 -65C49 -185 35 -229 23 -235L27 -261C49 -259 101 -251 124 -224C131 -216 138 -178 159 -24C171 66 197 200 227 356C264 550 295 668 393 668C443 668 479 632 479 575C479 516 446 458 383 418C361 404 344 398 318 397L296 350C395 338 460 281 460 192C460 110 411 40 300 40C258 40 215 55 192 69L181 51C191 18 222 -16 266 -16C308 -16 351 1 397 26C471 67 545 142 545 221C545 315 486 365 401 395C469 437 558 498 558 587Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,7.228,3.132)"><path d="M463 633C453 636 427 644 417 648C388 660 349 667 316 667C183 667 100 592 100 483C100 398 176 335 223 305L259 282C321 242 358 203 358 149C358 66 301 22 234 22C110 22 70 131 57 208L24 205L28 48C51 23 128 -17 215 -17C342 -17 446 60 446 174C446 262 394 310 317 361L284 383C229 420 183 455 183 515C183 569 222 628 298 628C384 628 418 563 428 481L461 487C459 527 458 593 463 633Z"></path></g></svg>,</span> and <svg height="12.7178pt" id="M184" style="vertical-align:-3.42947pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 14.9135 12.7178" width="14.9135pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M558 587C558 666 497 712 432 712C379 712 330 691 284 650C212 586 178 508 148 348L71 -65C49 -185 35 -229 23 -235L27 -261C49 -259 101 -251 124 -224C131 -216 138 -178 159 -24C171 66 197 200 227 356C264 550 295 668 393 668C443 668 479 632 479 575C479 516 446 458 383 418C361 404 344 398 318 397L296 350C395 338 460 281 460 192C460 110 411 40 300 40C258 40 215 55 192 69L181 51C191 18 222 -16 266 -16C308 -16 351 1 397 26C471 67 545 142 545 221C545 315 486 365 401 395C469 437 558 498 558 587Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,7.228,3.132)"><path d="M786 370C786 572 637 650 431 650H137L130 618C217 606 220 603 204 519L129 127C115 48 107 39 26 30L18 0H270C410 0 516 20 609 75C722 140 786 240 786 370ZM683 373C683 178 547 40 323 40C298 40 264 40 241 45C213 51 207 64 220 127L295 545C304 582 309 595 320 601C335 610 367 613 406 613C570 613 683 538 683 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454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,28.52,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,31.484,0)"><path d="M412 140C382 77 369 73 315 73H129L270 222C362 320 402 379 402 466C402 571 322 635 234 635C177 635 130 609 99 576L42 495L64 475C90 514 133 568 201 568C274 568 318 519 318 435C318 349 255 267 193 193C144 135 87 78 32 23V0H405C417 45 427 89 440 131L412 140Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,37.724,0)"><path d="M95 130C70 130 46 113 46 88C46 72 54 64 59 64C93 55 121 33 121 -3C121 -41 93 -68 44 -88L55 -117C117 -98 186 -56 186 22C186 91 131 130 95 130Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,42.867,0)"><path d="M478 372C478 418 458 448 431 448C409 448 389 431 389 410C389 404 391 400 394 395C398 388 406 371 406 348C406 253 308 122 251 51H249C254 122 249 257 231 336C212 421 189 448 159 448C126 448 75 412 23 327L48 306C83 354 103 371 115 371C125 371 134 360 144 334C185 224 192 64 183 -19C146 -100 116 -202 110 -244L125 -261C154 -259 208 -234 222 -220C222 -194 225 -84 235 -23C247 -3 273 36 308 79C379 165 478 288 478 372Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,53.015,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,64.278,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,70.518,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,73.482,0)"><path d="M153 550H386L412 615L406 623H120L82 318C104 327 142 338 184 338C294 338 347 275 347 187C347 112 305 39 221 39C160 39 119 71 97 89C88 97 80 96 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321 288C323 345 329 372 349 422C339 442 322 461 305 470C289 461 271 442 262 422C281 372 287 345 290 288C243 319 222 338 189 380C167 381 142 376 125 366C125 347 133 322 145 304C198 296 225 288 275 262C225 236 198 227 145 220C133 201 125 177 126 158C141 148 167 143 189 144C222 186 243 205 290 236C288 179 282 152 262 102C272 82 289 63 306 54C322 63 340 82 350 102C330 152 324 179 321 236C368 205 390 186 422 144C444 143 470 148 486 158Z"></path></g></svg> and <span class="nowrap"><svg height="12.7178pt" id="M187" style="vertical-align:-3.42947pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 13.5434 12.7178" width="13.5434pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M558 587C558 666 497 712 432 712C379 712 330 691 284 650C212 586 178 508 148 348L71 -65C49 -185 35 -229 23 -235L27 -261C49 -259 101 -251 124 -224C131 -216 138 -178 159 -24C171 66 197 200 227 356C264 550 295 668 393 668C443 668 479 632 479 575C479 516 446 458 383 418C361 404 344 398 318 397L296 350C395 338 460 281 460 192C460 110 411 40 300 40C258 40 215 55 192 69L181 51C191 18 222 -16 266 -16C308 -16 351 1 397 26C471 67 545 142 545 221C545 315 486 365 401 395C469 437 558 498 558 587Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,7.228,3.132)"><path d="M615 650H141L132 618C223 612 227 607 212 526L136 123C122 42 112 38 27 32L18 0H522C539 33 580 135 592 166L558 179C536 139 512 100 486 75C454 48 420 41 345 41C287 41 252 42 237 55C221 68 220 100 231 158L261 316H357C455 316 455 309 455 235H489L529 437H494C468 366 460 360 369 360H269L305 565C315 609 316 611 357 611H450C525 611 535 599 548 578C559 556 561 526 560 482L595 486L615 650Z"></path></g></svg>,</span> (b) <svg height="10.1524pt" id="M188" style="vertical-align:-0.04990005pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -10.1025 15.2084 10.1524" width="15.2084pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M669 636L663 650H260C230 650 221 652 208 675H186C177 621 162 548 144 481L173 479C195 534 211 560 226 578C248 604 266 615 373 615H544C460 511 114 112 23 16L31 0H561C577 34 611 135 622 170L594 182C566 125 544 88 515 65C481 38 416 35 319 35C249 35 197 37 152 41C270 184 542 501 669 636Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,8.996,-5.741)"><path d="M486 158C486 177 478 202 466 220C413 228 386 236 336 262C386 288 413 297 466 304C478 323 486 347 485 366C470 376 444 381 422 380C389 338 368 319 321 288C323 345 329 372 349 422C339 442 322 461 305 470C289 461 271 442 262 422C281 372 287 345 290 288C243 319 222 338 189 380C167 381 142 376 125 366C125 347 133 322 145 304C198 296 225 288 275 262C225 236 198 227 145 220C133 201 125 177 126 158C141 148 167 143 189 144C222 186 243 205 290 236C288 179 282 152 262 102C272 82 289 63 306 54C322 63 340 82 350 102C330 152 324 179 321 236C368 205 390 186 422 144C444 143 470 148 486 158Z"></path></g></svg> and <span class="nowrap"><svg height="12.7178pt" id="M189" style="vertical-align:-3.42947pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 14.813 12.7178" width="14.813pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M558 587C558 666 497 712 432 712C379 712 330 691 284 650C212 586 178 508 148 348L71 -65C49 -185 35 -229 23 -235L27 -261C49 -259 101 -251 124 -224C131 -216 138 -178 159 -24C171 66 197 200 227 356C264 550 295 668 393 668C443 668 479 632 479 575C479 516 446 458 383 418C361 404 344 398 318 397L296 350C395 338 460 281 460 192C460 110 411 40 300 40C258 40 215 55 192 69L181 51C191 18 222 -16 266 -16C308 -16 351 1 397 26C471 67 545 142 545 221C545 315 486 365 401 395C469 437 558 498 558 587Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,7.228,3.132)"><path d="M771 650H519L511 619L537 615C578 610 579 600 539 564C444 476 379 428 336 396C312 378 281 357 252 347L283 514C300 605 304 610 388 619L395 650H134L127 619C212 610 216 605 199 514L130 140C112 41 103 38 28 31L18 0H281L288 31C201 40 198 41 216 140L246 311C274 328 289 324 315 284C393 167 458 86 528 0H686L695 31C635 37 612 45 570 97C521 156 420 285 361 367L596 549C663 601 684 609 764 620L771 650Z"></path></g></svg>,</span> (c) <svg height="10.1524pt" id="M190" style="vertical-align:-0.04990005pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -10.1025 15.2084 10.1524" width="15.2084pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M669 636L663 650H260C230 650 221 652 208 675H186C177 621 162 548 144 481L173 479C195 534 211 560 226 578C248 604 266 615 373 615H544C460 511 114 112 23 16L31 0H561C577 34 611 135 622 170L594 182C566 125 544 88 515 65C481 38 416 35 319 35C249 35 197 37 152 41C270 184 542 501 669 636Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,8.996,-5.741)"><path d="M486 158C486 177 478 202 466 220C413 228 386 236 336 262C386 288 413 297 466 304C478 323 486 347 485 366C470 376 444 381 422 380C389 338 368 319 321 288C323 345 329 372 349 422C339 442 322 461 305 470C289 461 271 442 262 422C281 372 287 345 290 288C243 319 222 338 189 380C167 381 142 376 125 366C125 347 133 322 145 304C198 296 225 288 275 262C225 236 198 227 145 220C133 201 125 177 126 158C141 148 167 143 189 144C222 186 243 205 290 236C288 179 282 152 262 102C272 82 289 63 306 54C322 63 340 82 350 102C330 152 324 179 321 236C368 205 390 186 422 144C444 143 470 148 486 158Z"></path></g></svg> and <span class="nowrap"><svg height="12.7178pt" id="M191" style="vertical-align:-3.42947pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 12.219 12.7178" width="12.219pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M558 587C558 666 497 712 432 712C379 712 330 691 284 650C212 586 178 508 148 348L71 -65C49 -185 35 -229 23 -235L27 -261C49 -259 101 -251 124 -224C131 -216 138 -178 159 -24C171 66 197 200 227 356C264 550 295 668 393 668C443 668 479 632 479 575C479 516 446 458 383 418C361 404 344 398 318 397L296 350C395 338 460 281 460 192C460 110 411 40 300 40C258 40 215 55 192 69L181 51C191 18 222 -16 266 -16C308 -16 351 1 397 26C471 67 545 142 545 221C545 315 486 365 401 395C469 437 558 498 558 587Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,7.228,3.132)"><path d="M463 633C453 636 427 644 417 648C388 660 349 667 316 667C183 667 100 592 100 483C100 398 176 335 223 305L259 282C321 242 358 203 358 149C358 66 301 22 234 22C110 22 70 131 57 208L24 205L28 48C51 23 128 -17 215 -17C342 -17 446 60 446 174C446 262 394 310 317 361L284 383C229 420 183 455 183 515C183 569 222 628 298 628C384 628 418 563 428 481L461 487C459 527 458 593 463 633Z"></path></g></svg>,</span> and (d) <svg height="10.1524pt" id="M192" style="vertical-align:-0.04990005pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -10.1025 15.2084 10.1524" width="15.2084pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M669 636L663 650H260C230 650 221 652 208 675H186C177 621 162 548 144 481L173 479C195 534 211 560 226 578C248 604 266 615 373 615H544C460 511 114 112 23 16L31 0H561C577 34 611 135 622 170L594 182C566 125 544 88 515 65C481 38 416 35 319 35C249 35 197 37 152 41C270 184 542 501 669 636Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,8.996,-5.741)"><path d="M486 158C486 177 478 202 466 220C413 228 386 236 336 262C386 288 413 297 466 304C478 323 486 347 485 366C470 376 444 381 422 380C389 338 368 319 321 288C323 345 329 372 349 422C339 442 322 461 305 470C289 461 271 442 262 422C281 372 287 345 290 288C243 319 222 338 189 380C167 381 142 376 125 366C125 347 133 322 145 304C198 296 225 288 275 262C225 236 198 227 145 220C133 201 125 177 126 158C141 148 167 143 189 144C222 186 243 205 290 236C288 179 282 152 262 102C272 82 289 63 306 54C322 63 340 82 350 102C330 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Complexity

fig7

Figure 7

Figure 7: Risk Propagation Model and Simulation of Schedule Change in Construction Projects: A Complex Network Approach 