Modeling Coupled Nonlinear Multilayered Dynamics: Cyber Attack and Disruption of an Electric Grid

Figure 8

The value to an attacker when compromise is hidden until the time of attack. (a) The expected number of compromised cyber components (Equation (9)), upper panel, or expected loss in the performance of the physical system (Equation (10)), lower panel, as a function of the time at which the attack is executed, for the rate of external compromise and rate of co-compromise . (b) The optimal time of attack across a range of values of and if the expected number of compromised cyber components is the metric of value to the attacker. (c) The optimal time of attack across a range of values of and when reduction in performance is the metric of value to the attacker.

(a)

(b)

(c)